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According to Grok, the 2026 outlook for Argentina will be pretty bright.

### Argentina’s Economic Outlook for 2025-2026

As of late December 2025, Argentina’s economy under President Javier Milei is in a strong recovery phase following the deep recession and hyperinflation challenges of 2023-2024. Milei’s austerity measures, fiscal consolidation, deregulation, and a new IMF-supported program have stabilized key metrics: inflation has sharply declined, fiscal surpluses have been achieved for the first time in years, and economic activity has rebounded robustly in 2025.

#### Key Indicators and Projections
- **GDP Growth**:
- 2025: Consensus around **4-5%** growth, with estimates from OECD (4.2%), BBVA Research (4.5%), Allianz Trade (4.4%), and IMF (4.5%). Some earlier forecasts were higher (5-5.5%), but recent data reflects solid quarterly gains (e.g., 0.3% q-o-q in Q3 2025).

- 2026: Projections range from **3-4%**, with OECD (3%), BBVA (3%), Allianz (3.5%), and government targets around 5% (more optimistic). Growth is driven by private consumption, investment (boosted by lifted capital controls), exports (energy, mining, agriculture from Vaca Muerta and bumper harvests), and improving real wages.

- **Inflation**:
- Annual rate has fallen dramatically from over 200% in 2023 to around **31-42%** in 2025 (OECD projects 41.7%; monthly rates ~2-3% recently).

- 2026: Expected to drop further to **16-20%** (OECD 17.6%, Allianz 16-20%), supported by fiscal discipline, positive real interest rates, and lower import costs.

- **Fiscal Balance**:
- Argentina achieved fiscal surpluses in 2024-2025 (primary surplus ~1-1.6% of GDP projected for 2025), a major shift from chronic deficits. The 2026 budget targets continued prudence (primary surplus ~1.5%).

- **Poverty and Social Indicators**:
- Poverty peaked at over 50% in early 2024 but has declined significantly to **~31-39%** by mid/late 2025, thanks to falling inflation, recovering real wages, and targeted social aid. Further reductions are expected with sustained growth.

- **Other Positive Developments**:
- Trade surplus remains strong despite rising imports.
- Net public debt ~48% of GDP, manageable with growth.
- Reserves rebuilding (supported by IMF’s $20bn facility approved in 2025).

- Midterm elections in October 2025 reaffirmed support for reforms, boosting confidence.

#### Risks and Challenges
- Lingering vulnerabilities: Low reserves, exchange rate volatility, and dependence on commodity exports.
- Global factors: Trade tensions and potential U.S. tariffs could impact, though Argentina’s exposure is limited.
- Social costs: Initial austerity raised poverty temporarily, but recovery is alleviating this.

Overall, reputable sources like OECD, IMF, BBVA, and Deloitte describe a “strong recovery underway,” with 2025 marking robust rebound and 2026 consolidating gains. The government is more optimistic (5%+ growth in 2026), while international bodies are cautiously positive, emphasizing the need for sustained reforms. Argentina is poised for its strongest multi-year performance in decades if stability holds.