“As long as that remains true, and as long as the US continues to make it unmistakably clear, peace remains the most rational choice. “
If they were they would stop making moves on Taiwan like a creepy old child molester perving on a three year old.
The Chinese are intelligent and in this battle for the long run.
They’ll wait until Trump’s out of office - and the Republican after him - then attack with a democrats in office with a corrupt CIA back in charge.
The US is not going to fight a takeover of Taiwan.
The only hope Taiwan has is nuclear deterrence.
We can and should sell Taiwan the equipment it needs for conventional defense. Hopefully, that will be sufficient in itself.
Bkmk
Well thought out and well reasoned article.
The greatest weapon is intimidation, probably augmented by fifth column operatives.
Ego is an amazing thing, what exactly does china/Xi think they/he will gain with a destroyed Taiwan.
If “stolen” land is the driving force then Russia should be nervous.
Wonder what west reaction would be if China made the move in Russia? Strongly worded letters?
Can’t we fabricate our own damn chips so we don’t need to defend Taiwan? America First!
Lots of talk about war over Taiwan. Lots of discussion about who would win.
Not a lot of talk about why? China already looks at them as a Chinese territory. There is a ton of trade and a ton of travel between the states. Families travel back and forth regularly. At the “ground level” there is not a lot of differentiation between the two. The divisions happen among the ruling class.
The only thing Taiwan can provide China is chips. Does anyone think if Taiwan is about to be taken over militarily by Xi, that a whole bunch of B52s would level those factories?
Taiwan won’t be invaded or attacked. In a few years they will simply roll over and join the mother country. Hopefully the US will have enough chip production to let it go. That, I think, is the plan.
If the US, Australia, Japan and others like the EU and Britain refuse to trade with China in the wake of an invasion of Taiwan, their economy is in ruins. Its that simple. The 3rd world simply cannot buy everything China produces. With all those huge markets gone there simply are no replacements.
Yes, that would involve some pain for the buying countries but its a whole lot easier to find people willing to sell you things than it is to find people willing to buy things from you. In a few years, supply lines would be reconfigured away from China permanently. China would have Taiwan and dire grinding poverty for the foreseeable future.
This is complete BS.
Nearly every senior officer in the PLA has been fired in the last year due to party infighting.
Loyalty to Xi in the PLA is nearly non existant.
There are no wars coming under those circumstances.
Trump’s recent foreign policy statement could be entirely aimed at China but its about military commercial technological and geostrategic competition and not directly about Taiwan.
A military attack on Taiwan would be self-defeating for the Chinese, even if the attack itself would be successful. The island itself would be totally destroyed. What’s the point of annexing a “province” that would be an economic basket case with a shattered infrastructure and no functioning industries left? It’s not like Taiwan has a lot of exploitable natural resources.
A. All war games are aimed at producing the worst case outcomes, in order to make better defenses and favorable outcomes. So relying on wr game conclusions is a fool’s errand.
B. China has no social safety net. The families of the thousands of dead and severely wounded troops would suffer total loss of income, becoming homeless, destitute and possibly starving.
C. As a consequence to B above, the Party would be threatened with more unrest.
D. The Party will never do anything to threaten the rule of the Party, regardless of the billions of dollars spent to convince Western pundits to the supremacy of China & its military.
E. China has no experience in war since the 1950s. The only engagements it has ventured since were defeats, resounding defeats.
F. For all above reasons alone, China will never attempt to take Taiwan.
The primary result of a war over Taiwan will be the eradication of 250 million chicoms and a dozen industrial cities in the flooding from the sudden releases from a dozen dams...
China invading Taiwan would be an invitation for India to overrun the ChiComms with an infantry composed of tens of millions of fighting age men vs grandpa and grandma Han, sitting in their wheelchairs.
Abortion has many undesirable consequences.
.