Posted on 12/11/2025 6:54:05 AM PST by delta7
It’s the Dawn of Perpetual Scarcity and a New Monetary Era”
Silver has experienced three spectacular bull runs over the past century, each driven by distinct macroeconomic, geopolitical, and supply-demand dynamics. Yet the present cycle is fundamentally different—a convergence of global mining stagnation and surging multi-sector demand threatens to ignite a much more consequential and potentially prolonged price explosion.
The Three Major Bull Runs
1970s Bull Run (1971–1980)
$1.30 → $50.00 → +3,746 % (≈ 37×) over 9 years
1970s run: final ~1.5 years = 80–90% of gains
The first great silver bull began in 1971, triggered by the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard, runaway inflation, and geopolitical crisis. Silver meandered for years, trading below $6 until late 1978. Then, within just 18 months, momentum exploded—rallying from $6 to nearly $50 per ounce as Hunt brothers’ speculation, a weakening dollar, and global instability coalesced. Roughly 80–90% of gains occurred in that brief parabolic period, revealing how silver can trade sideways for years before breaking upward in a frantic melt-up.
2000s Bull Run (2001–2011)
$4.00 → $49.80 → +1,145 % (≈ 11.5×) over 10 years
2000s run: final ~2 years = 80–90% of gains
Silver’s next major ascent began around 2001, with the metal languishing between $4 and $8 for several years. Gradual climbs followed, especially as de-dollarization themes and the 2008 global financial crisis fueled safe-haven demand. Yet it was only in the final two years, 2009–2011, when silver shot from $9 to $49.80—again, 80–90% of total gains happened fast, as central bank interventions and monetary debasement sent investors scrambling for tangible assets.
Current Bull Run (2020–2025)
$11.60 → $52.00 → +348 % (≈ 4.5×) so far over 5 years This run is unlikely to peak because it will likely just keep going up (given supply demand fundamentals and growing monetary use.)
Silver’s recent run arguably began at its COVID panic low in March 2020, bottoming near $11.60. Over five years, it has risen to about $52, a gain of roughly 348%, but only a fraction of previous blow-off moves. Importantly, this surge so far has been steadier, not yet having delivered the classic parabolic spike characteristic of prior bull runs. WARNING, we are not very close to the time we will see the 80% to 90% gains kick in and it is better to be early than late. This is something none of us can time.
Why This Time Is Different
Stagnating Global Mining Output
Globally, silver mine production is essentially flat, hovering around 820 million ounces per year—despite rising prices and technology. Large deposits are depleting, grades are declining, and new discoveries are increasingly rare. Meanwhile the Trump regime is poking at Mexico threatening to send in troops while the Morena party is moving closer to seizing control of their valuable silver deposits.
Unlike the 1970s and 2000s, the world’s geological bounty is failing to keep pace with demand, as capex and exploration remain subdued due to resource depletion then compounded by so called “sustainable” pressures, resource nationalism, and capital constraints.
Structural Deficit: Demand Far Outstrips Supply
Current supply-demand estimates suggest annual demand for silver is now running near 1.2 billion ounces, a deficit of roughly 400 million ounces versus new mining output. Secondary recovery (recycling) and stockpile drawdowns can only bridge this gap temporarily. The resulting shortfall is historically unprecedented, and, if sustained, threatens to exhaust above-ground inventories in the next two to three years—forcing a dramatic repricing regime as buyers scramble for scarce physical metal.
Technology-Driven Industrial Demand Shock
Unlike prior cycles, silver’s demand profile today is broader, more diverse, and less cyclical. New uses dominate:
Military and defense: Smart weapons, silver zinc batteries, silver-ion batteries, communications, surveillance. Electric vehicles: Silver is critical for contacts, sensors, wiring, and battery tech. Green energy: Photovoltaic solar (where silver is irreplaceable), wind, and grid modernization. Electronics, batteries, drones, robotics, AI data centers, 5G: All are rapidly scaling operations and need ultra-conductive silver material. Nuclear: Requiring silver for neutron absorbers and specialized electronics. This secular demand wave isn’t tied to traditional jewelry, coins, or speculative investment—meaning much of the new demand is price-insensitive, non-negotiable, and likely to accelerate regardless of financial market conditions.
Silver wasn’t Monetized in the 1970s and 2000s like today
During the 1970s and 2000s silver bull runs, the metal was not widely recognized or utilized as a monetary asset by governments or global financial institutions—its narrative was largely inflation hedge and industrial demand. Today, however, silver’s monetary role is rapidly resurging: Russia is reportedly considering adding silver to its central bank reserves, sovereign wealth funds are rotating capital into silver allocations, and India has begun permitting silver as collateral for loans—unprecedented moves that elevate silver’s official financial status and encourage institutional accumulation on a global scale. This marks a profound break from previous cycles.
Parabolic Phase: Are We There Yet?
History suggests that silver bull runs spend years ranging and climbing gradually, followed by a wild, compressed parabolic phase that drives the bulk of total returns in just 1.5–2 years. If the 2020 bottom marks the beginning of the current run, we are about five years in, but the recent move to $52—while impressive—is not yet the vertical explosion seen in past cycles’ final acts.
Given the scale of current deficits, mining stagnation, rapid technological adoption, monetary use and breadth of global demand, there is strong reason to believe the most dramatic leg of this bull run still lies ahead. In fact, this cycle could break historical patterns entirely, with persistent structural shortages forcing a “higher-for-longer” price regime and periodic price spikes as physical availability dries up.
More Thoughts
Silver’s prior booms were mostly about monetary crisis and speculative fervor; today’s run has fundamentals never seen before—chronic supply collapse, relentless new industrial uses, and a looming global inventory squeeze. While the next parabolic phase may mirror history’s final melt-ups, the underlying shortage and irreversible demand expansion mean this time really is different—and potentially much more consequential.
That’s because it’s not the value of a commodity rising, it’s the value of the dollar diminishing.
When was a kid in the mid 1960s, several of the local merchants would happily give me and my friends five beautiful Morgan silver dollars in exchange for a five dollar bill. The kindly owner of the Mobile station across the street had a save full of them, which he said were too heavy and inconvenient.
Or, perhaps he was impressed that we valued the silver and traded them out of kindness.
Anyway, I thought the coins were beautiful and my parents were both precious metal enthusiasts - although they never had enough savings to invest anything significant.
For several summers, I’d mow lawns and exchange a $5 for the coins each week.
I collected 120 of them during that period, which I still have sixty years later. I’ve never had them appraised, but assuming I have none of the super valuable ones, and only a few that are heavily worn, I expect they are worth more than their melt value - which would be about 120*61*.75, or $5400.
Now, I have a lot more silver than that, which I purchased 10 years ago at $15 per ounce - but the Morgans I collected when I was around 13 are my favorites.
The stock market is a plethora of derivatives of money.
Gold (PM) *is* money.
Well, some I bought at $20, some I bought at $8 and some I bought at $35. I took the cash I made doing side work and bought in. She is a firm believer in having the money work for us and her investing strategies have paid off far better than mine. I think the markets are heading for a large correction but I always think that. I would like her to take everything we have in the market and buy property outside the metro bit she thinks I’m crazy. I still have 10 years minimum until I retire so, regardless of what happens in the next two years, I will still have more to put up for retirement.
Buying silver for long term investment is like saying I wish I had bought that 64 Corvette that is now worth $45K.
IF you had put that money into Apple or the S&P 500 Index fund it would be would 10X more.
FYI, i have some Silver and Gold. Not enough to be worth more than 20K even today.
I wish I had bought NVIDIA. A guy I know bought it about seven years ago. His shares are now worth over $1 Million.
“I wish I had bought NVIDIA.”
Gads.... wish you wouldn’t have brought that up. Over 20 years ago I had 10K to invest in Nvidia then life threw me a tremendous curveball and it wasn’t meant to be. Take a guess on it’s value. Yeah.... I know.
It’s not hype even a fool can see silver is headed to the moon. While the dollar is headed towards toilet paper status thanks to our overspending politicians. When silver shoots higher it won’t ever go back down to it’s current price. It’s by far the most undervalued asset today.
The guy who I work with bought it based on a tip from his kid. So, he made the investment in his sons IRA. It hit 1.2 million when the stock went to $210/share. It is all in his son’s account though. It was the money he had to spend on college. His son did not go to college. He is an EMT.
FYI, this guy also has a 64 Corvette that his wife bought him for their 25th wedding anniversary. She paid $25K back then for the car. It is worth about $45K today. The interior needs to be redone. It is the 327 V8 4 speed convertible.
So, the value of that car has increased a lot, but not even doubled in 15 years.
Looking forward to the presidents two thousand dollar
—
$2,000 held as personal wealth in 1860 would be equivalent to $1,273,893.00 in 2025 which would have made you among the super rich at the time.
I have collected coins since I was a kid. Mostly as a fun hobby, not really for the sole purpose of investment.
Unfortunately, Chinese counterfeits are hurting that market.
I, too have been a collector since I was a kid. I have a complete wheat cent set (no 1909 S VDB, no 1914 D), complete Jeffersons through 1980, complete Roosevelts to 1964, complete Washingtons to 1964, and a nice type set missing of course the usual. I bought most of the type coins in the 1960s, a few recently. The circulating coins are all from pocket change.
I laugh at the obvious counterfeits on eBay. Some of the Chinese stuff is pretty good, I was grabbing bullion 2019-early 2025 but not (obviously) right now.
Interesting times we live in.
Yes they are. I buy mainly from established coin dealers or graded coins.
I am looking at a few other old proofs that I would like to get next.
When they are selling American Silver Eagles for $15.00 and they come from China, it is a sure ripoff.
Don’t feel bad. I was doing it all right and the government decided to shut down my industry for the China virus. I lost nearly everything. If we were doing it right, we would have become politicians, started a green scam company, or started NGOs for refugees... We’d be rich.
Silver coins make great gifts to the nieces and nephews. I have bars I will sell one of these days but the coins usually are given as gifts.
I got in on XRP early and then it was trapped by the government lawsuit that drug on for two years. I had some money issues when it was settled and cashed out for a nice profit.
Yes, you can do everything right and still get screwed.
My payday is this Friday and I will pick up another $100-$120 in silver.
Each Peace and Morgan ( circulated) are .770 oz/t Silver. Not to be confused with pre-64 coinage, calculated at .715 oz/t Silver.
“Ya got me.”
LOL!
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