Brave of them...not sure what else they are. I hope they have a good escape plan or something.
MIGA? Wishful thinking, don’t count on it. The Mullahs are still in control and won’t just walk away.
Well the next 10 years won’t be boring. Civil wars coming in Iran, Mexico, the UK and possibly here.
An attainable outcome will be a decent peaceful government in Teheran. There are millions of decent honorable peaceful Iranians who font deserve the rebid dictatorship there now.
I hope it catches fire.
Once you lose the military, you are usually toast in due time.
This could be the time. Electrical blackouts in the summer, 120 degree temps, and drought with water mismanagement and restrictions. Some reports suggest Teheran may need to be evacuated due to water problems. People are blaming the government incompetence. Maybe this will be the time.
Might be an op to draw out counter-revolutionaries…? If it’s genuine, the ayatollahs can’t tolerate that.
I doubt it'll last or spread.
Iran has had many years to figure things out, they have a robust security apparatus that was (go figure) trained by us originally, SAVAK. The Chinese and Russians have been helping them in various aspects.
Years ago and probably long before that: https://theworld.org/stories/2016/07/31/chinese-firm-sold-iran-spy-software-reuters
They started doing this around 2018 or 2019 to the best of my knowledge: https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/iran-plunged-internet-blackout-deepening-conflict-rcna213544 (realize, outside the US, our social media works hand in glove with our Intel).
Our state non-propaganda (sarc) isn't reaching them full force: https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-jams-satellites-to-block-transmissions-by-voa-bbc—80352412/416809.html
Even with us fueling dissidents and providing communication tools for them, trying to blast messages to get people stirred up, fueling the Kurds which are in Iran too, and other groups (loyalists to the former government), Iran at this point IMHO is established and capable to the point where the best we can hope for is to weaken them, cause them to devote resources to internal security, but I doubt we're actually going to achieve regime change.
Furthermore, with our more aggressive stance on the global stage, which ultimately is aimed at China and Russia, these nations will be far more willing to use Iran as a proxy against us, providing them with tech, weapons, Intel, political backing, trade...
IMHO, China has been our enemy for a long time, they see it this way. We simply refused to officially and publicly acknowledge this fact because for us where the mighty dollar is god, trade with China and using them as a manufacturing base caused us to look away. Our politicians do what our oligarchs and big corporations want, as a general rule. It wasn't 6 years after the Vietnam war ended and US firms were setting up sweat shops in the textile industry there and 20 years for us to drop the trade embargo all together: https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-lifting-the-trade-embargo-vietnam-and-exchange-with-reporters
China is our #1 threat in every way: conventional, non-conventional, nuclear, Intel, economic.
But with them having the media and political influence they have (party and campaign contributions, paying off our politicians), them holding the securities they do, the massive amount of trade, and them being a manufacturing base for US HQ’d (owned) firms, we try our absolute best to look away. They can drive tanks over pro-democracy protesters on Tienanmen square in 1989 and we'll give them most favored trade status and support WTO membership the same year.
On a strategic level, the Ukraine war and us basically pushing China and Russia closer, making China a HUGE and likely the only winner in all of this, was about the worst possible outcome possible (Biden and his staff were morons). Irans role as a proxy against us has just become far more important for China and Russia. But in the meantime we still have our morons dreaming about Ukraine winning, the effectiveness of our sanctions and Russia imploding...
Getting the Persian royal family back is like getting the Hohenzollerns back to ruling Germany. They need to get a big name out there and Pahlavi is all they have that is recognizable, and he is anti Theocracy. The Iranians are at the point of anything is better than what was forced on them since 1979. The Revolutionary guards are going to be a problem, were can they go?
King of kings, light of the Aryans.
this is very significant, a hopeful step
There has to be something major brewing in Iran. Tehran is nearly out of water, as is much of the rest of the country. That may be what is behind this.
