I’m always amazed at the two realities that people live in:
1) President Trump is doing great. Inflation is down. Interest rates are down. Tariffs are generating huge revenue. Manufacturing is being re-shored. Foreign investment is flooding the US. Stock market at an all time high. Things great.
2) Trump is a disaster. People can’t afford food. Tariffs are driving up the cost of everything. Companies aren’t hiring. Companies are laying off huge numbers of people. The rich have never been richer and the poor have never been poorer. Everything is falling apart and we are going to crash like the Great Depression.
Half the country is crazy. I don’t think I’m in the crazy half. But maybe I’m wrong.
You’re not wrong.
Hiring in my little backwater has picked up. The H1B visa thing was killing off a lot of prospective positions, save for some select architect posts. Since the policy change, hiring is most definitely increasing.
Gas is down, sort of. Diesel is still ridiculous, but I’m in the People’s Soviet of Washington. 2nd highest gas tax.
Digging the tariffs and the power of them. SCOTUS better not monkey with that.
It’s partly two different factions in the country. Is also partly overstating things.
Inflation is down? Inflation is 3% and trending up. This is 50% above Fed target, which a segment says is too low and should be . . . 5%. So yes, inflation is down from 15% back in the early 80s. It’s rather a lot up from 2018 and the 20teens. By about 50% actually.
2) Interest rates are 4ish% on the 10 yr note, which the Fed does not decree. This is rather a lot higher than the 20teens.
3) Foreign investment is flooding in? I do see pledges. Haven’t seen ground breaking on foreign megaplants, which means the pledges aren’t cash, at least yet.
4) Job totals in collapse? Nah. Though every illegal shipped out is a smaller workforce to fill jobs. We do realize this means those jobs have to pay more to get jobs filled and what does that mean? Right. Inflation.
5) Tariff revenue? Few hundred billion dollars. Looks good, except when compared to 1.8 Trillion deficit. So instead of 1.8 it will be 1.5.
6) Frankly ALL OF THIS STUFF plays second fiddle to the most important factors upcoming:
The permian guys say peak for their field is next year.
The processed neodymium magnets are not in the deal to
have export restrictions stopped. No magnets will kill
rather a lot of things, quickly. Make our own? Sounds
good. Ten years. Minimum.