If 9 billion humans consumed energy at USA per capita levels, the total annual energy consumption would be approximately 2,565 exajoules. This is more than four times the world’s current total annual energy consumption (around 604-620 exajoules in 2023).
2,565 exajoules of energy, provided by an 80% oil and 20% coal split, is equivalent to approximately 350.3 billion barrels of oil and 27.3 billion short tons of coal annually and growing with every new human added.
Annual energy from oil:(2565EJ times 0.80=2052EJ
Annual energy from coal:2565EJ times 0.20=513EJ
The technically recoverable resources of each at any cost would last at these consumption levels
Oil: 4.46 years
Coal: 50.1 years
You cannot have 9 billion living at USA levels on this planet using fossil fuels it is mathematically impossible in the long term.
Nukes could do it but you need to Henry Ford mass produce them.
Total annual energy requirement (2,565 EJ) by the annual energy output of a single 1.5 gigawatt reactor (0.047304EJ/year) = 54,225 1.5 gigawatt reactors would be needed to supply 2,565 exajoules of energy annually.
Solar absolutely can do it it’s the largest single source of primary energy by far on the planet.
The total solar energy striking the Earth’s land surface per year is approximately 3.4 to 3.85 million exajoules.
It would take 1.2% of the area of the Sahara to provide the 640EJ to provide 2565EJ is nearly exactly four times more. So 4.8% of the Sahara lifts all of humanity to USA levels of energy consumption. Of course you wouldn’t do it in one spot but every desert on war th between 30N and 30S has nearly identical insolation rates so really any land area of equal size spread out anywhere between 30-30 would work.
Engineered Geothermal could do it as well.
“A 2006 MIT report estimated that over 200 ZJ (200,000 EJ) would be extractable with existing technology (at that time) from enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) in the United States alone, with the potential to increase this to over 2,000 ZJ with technology improvements.”
This is the tech that unlocks the top 10km not 3km they are getting rates of penetration of 5 meters per hour in solid granite. 3000 metres is just 25 days of drilling. That’s shorter than a typical deep SWD well in the Permian basin.
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/us-firm-record-breaking-drill
EGS works everywhere on this planet the hydraulic stimulation aka fracking to make a EGS system is identical to shale wells it opens up tens of cubic MILES of rock for heat mining.
Solar, nukes, geothermal those are the only way to have 8-9-10+ billion humans at EU levels of energy consumption let alone USA levels.
Again it’s just math, which doesn’t have feelings, beliefs, politics, gut feelings or some other nonsense.
Math it’s universal.
The latest efficiency for current technology solar panels is only about 25% under the best conditions.....................
For those curious...A typical 8” EGS wellbore pair at a depth of 3 km can produce approximately 47,300 to 473,000 gigajoules (GJ) of electrical energy per year. Based on the geothermal gradient at that location by the time you get to 10km it’s almost equal for most places on earth and it’s triple to five times as much vs 3km in raw energy recovery.
It would produce three times as much as direct heating use at 130-150C such as district heating or using absorption chillers for cooling with a COP of 1.2-1.4 for double effect chillers so 3x times another 1.4x cooling due to physics is always more efficient vs direct heating or worse thermal to mechanical to electrical conversion.
The MMW drill is a fundamental shift in drilling tech it is using what was formerly classified direct energy weapons tech developed for Starwars missile defense. The gigatron is that tech. It rips up granite, basalt, even quartzite with ease.
So how many well bores for 640 EJ ?
A total of 1,353,066 wellbores would be needed to produce 640 exajoules of energy per year, with each wellbore producing 473,000 GJ per year
For comparison...
The Texas Water Development Board estimates about 1.75 million wells have been drilled in Texas since 1900
So Texas alone has drilled enough holes to have provided the worlds total energy consumption if those were EGS wells. That alone should wake some people up.