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General Aviation Pilots Face Deadly Weather Trap: Study Reveals 7x Higher Death Risk
Study Finds ^ | September 29, 2025 | Emma Sheffield (University of South Australia)

Posted on 09/29/2025 12:46:38 PM PDT by Red Badger

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To: CodeToad
A report of a problem that doesn’t actually exist. All pilots know of the instrument rating and all pilots have basic instrument time as part of their license.

Respectfully, I do not agree my good FRiend.

The instrument time for the private license is a minimal skill that goes away fairly quickly.

Training for the instrument rating, achieving the rating, and keeping current (pilot and a/c) are the best paths.

True story...

I was flying at night, VFR, in the Cali central valley when ... bloop... I was in a cloud that came out of nowhere.

I was able to calmly establish attitude, airspeed, maintain altitude, and determine position, and communicate with ATC. All worked out just fine.

And, absolutely related, I had coincidently earned my IFR rating just a couple of months earlier. Had I not had the skills and abilities and confidence, things just might have deteriorated into an uncontrolled spin quite quickly.

41 posted on 09/29/2025 4:35:51 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never...in nothing, great or small...Winston ChurchIill)
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To: xone
It was CAVU 2 miles off the coast.

Source?

Cops don't fly in SVFR, because they can't do their jobs. Lots of controlled airspace from Orange County north. Cop helos are a bad example also because of the training of the pilots. Not much instrument time.

I grew up in SoCal and learned to fly there so I'm familiar with both the weather and airspace.

When going to CMA from SNA, it's faster to take the Mini-Route over LAX. But, since it's VFR only, that requires transiting the airspace at 2,500' MSL. Since the ceiling was lower than that, the pilot elected to loop around BUR & VNY as they were reporting higher ceilings.

Island Express Helicopters held an FAA Part 135 operating certificate, number ISHA094F, for on-demand VFR-only operations, since 1998. The company policy forbade IFR flight in its helicopters because the insurance wouldn't cover it.

I'll give you 'get-there-itis' but there was no 'scud' to run. The guy crashed because he got vertigo when he went inadvertent IMC. Sad because he could of [SIC] just went on top, finished the trip and Kobe could have paid the fine.

He didn't go IFR inadvertently, he did it intentionally. The pilot reported to SCT that he was in VFR at 1,500' and that he was going to climb through the clouds to VFR conditions on top.

If there was no scud to run, then there would be no reason for him to bust through the clouds to VFR on top.

If there was no scud to run, and the ceiling was 1,100' above the highway, then why would be be still be disorientated once he descended below the clouds?

See: Aircraft Accident Investigative Update (PDF)

In the accident report, there are photos of the accident aircraft scud-running above the 101 FWY.

You'll also see that the pilot went through a check-ride in May of 2019 that also included IIMC and unusual attitude recovery.

The pilot, age 50, had worked for Island Express for about 10 years. According to FAA records, the pilot held an FAA commercial certificate with ratings for helicopter and instrument helicopter, as well as an FAA instructor certificate for flight, instrument, and ground instruction. His most recent FAA second-class medical certificate was issued on July 3, 2019, with a limitation stating, “must have glasses for near vision.” At the time of his last medical application, he reported 8,200 total hours of flight experience. The pilot logged about 1,250 total hours in the S76 helicopter. His most recent flight review, including proficiency training in inadvertent entry into instrument meteorological conditions (IIMC) and unusual attitude recovery, was conducted in a helicopter with EUROSAFETY International on May 8, 2019. The pilot received satisfactory grades for these maneuvers.

So, again, I have to ask, if there was no scud to run, why would he be intentionally going IFR to VFR on-top, and why would he be still be disorientated once he descended below the 1,100' ceiling and back into VFR conditions?

42 posted on 09/29/2025 4:36:23 PM PDT by Ol' Dan Tucker (For 'tis the sport to have the engineer hoist with his own petard., -- Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 4)
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To: Tijeras_Slim
Doolittle was beyond amazing.

For anyone reading this thread, I recommend the biography by his daughter, Jonna Doolittle Hoppes.

Calculated Risk: The Extraordinary Life of Jimmy Doolittle―Aviation Pioneer and World War II Hero Paperback –

43 posted on 09/29/2025 4:49:41 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never...in nothing, great or small...Winston ChurchIill)
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To: Seaplaner

Thanks!


44 posted on 09/29/2025 4:53:03 PM PDT by Tijeras_Slim
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To: Tijeras_Slim
My pleasure my good FRiend.

You will not be able to put it down, and you'll gain even more insight and respect for the great man.

45 posted on 09/29/2025 4:56:07 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never...in nothing, great or small...Winston ChurchIill)
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To: Ol' Dan Tucker
It was CAVU 2 miles off the coast. Source?

My boys flying @ the same time.

I grew up in SoCal and learned to fly there so I'm familiar with both the weather and airspace.

I got 8 years flying helos there 6 outta Tustin. Am also an MOS'ed Aviation Safety Officer.

So, again, I have to ask, if there was no scud to run, why would he be intentionally going IFR to VFR on-top, and why would he be still be disorientated once he descended below the 1,100' ceiling and back into VFR conditions?

Scud running assumes breaks in the overcast. He got into the shit trying VFR in SVFR @ best. Doesn't take much of doing those transitions to initiate vertigo. The angle of impact screams vertigo. I'm sure his 'IIMC and unusual attitude recovery' was done with a hood during VFR, it isn't the same. The only reason to go that way was your passenger paying the freight didn't want to fly overwater. If he got to VFR-on top why didn't he stay there and just take the violation?

46 posted on 09/29/2025 5:40:01 PM PDT by xone ( )
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To: SkyDancer

That’s what killed many a celebrity.................


47 posted on 09/30/2025 5:28:36 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: xone
Scud running assumes breaks in the overcast. He got into the shit trying VFR in SVFR @ best. Doesn't take much of doing those transitions to initiate vertigo. The angle of impact screams vertigo. I'm sure his 'IIMC and unusual attitude recovery' was done with a hood during VFR, it isn't the same. The only reason to go that way was your passenger paying the freight didn't want to fly overwater. If he got to VFR-on top why didn't he stay there and just take the violation?

I define scud-running as trying to stay below the clouds and above the ground without crashing into it.

In the report to which I linked you can see in the photos that there were no breaks in the overcast, hence no transitions from VFR to IFR and back again.

He never got to VFR on top. He flew into the solid overcast in an attempt break-out on top, became spatially disoriented, went into a dead-man's spiral and crashed.

48 posted on 09/30/2025 7:20:51 AM PDT by Ol' Dan Tucker (For 'tis the sport to have the engineer hoist with his own petard., -- Hamlet, Act 3, Scene 4)
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To: Ol' Dan Tucker

Vertigo baby. Before he got to the crash site he was spatially disoriented. Took the road to VFR-on top too late to make it.


49 posted on 09/30/2025 7:46:13 AM PDT by xone ( )
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To: 9YearLurker
"You mean the weather really did kill JFKJ?"

Overconfidence and a lack of preparation (which was a symptom of his overconfidence) killed JFK Jr. The weather just gave him the opportunity.


"You mean the weather really did kill JFKJ?"

Overconfidence and a lack of preparation (which was a symptom of his overconfidence) killed JFK Jr. The weather just gave him the opportunity.


"You mean the weather really did kill JFKJ?"

Overconfidence and a lack of preparation (which was a symptom of his overconfidence) killed JFK Jr. The weather just gave him the opportunity.

50 posted on 09/30/2025 9:50:11 AM PDT by Paal Gulli
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To: central_va

Yes


51 posted on 09/30/2025 10:45:07 AM PDT by US_MilitaryRules (#PureBlood )
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To: US_MilitaryRules

Thanks. I haven’t flown in a while.


52 posted on 09/30/2025 10:47:43 AM PDT by central_va ( I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Seaplaner

Just ordered the Doolittle book you mentioned, found it at Thrift Books for $5.00!


53 posted on 10/04/2025 4:24:32 PM PDT by Tijeras_Slim
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To: Tijeras_Slim
Excellent, my FRiend. Please let me know what you think.

The author, Doolittle's daughter, is an excellent presenter btw.

54 posted on 10/04/2025 9:20:57 PM PDT by Seaplaner (Never give in. Never give in. Never, never, never...in nothing, great or small...Winston ChurchIill)
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