Replies

That Donald Trump as follow through on his threat to impose additional 25% sanction on India to discourage it importing Russian oil, implies that the president has concluded that Vladimir Putin requires additional incentives to conclude a piece deal.

It is the view of many that the condition on the ground is such that time is running out for Ukraine. It's asserted that Russian advances that heretofore had been minimal and expensive, have now become enveloping maneuvers that threatened to catastrophically break the Ukrainian line. It is assumed that Ukraine is running out of manpower and Russia, although short of equipment, has ample manpower reserves.

The counterargument is to the effect that inflation in Russia is at 9% forcing interest rates to 18% with shortages of consumer goods already apparent on shop shelves. There are reported shortages of petrol in given areas. Russian banks are under extreme pressure because of failed loans, partially due to high interest rates, and the ruble has now come under pressure. The Russian national budget is largely dependent on the sale of oil and the quantity of oil and the profits have been reduced either by way of sanctions or by way of decaying infrastructure. Unemployment is on the rise. Russian cash reserves are dissipating.

So assuming – these facts indicate that Trump's tariffs against India (notably not against China) are necessary for Ukraine's survival, will they avail? Will Russia again find alternative buyers, presumably China? Will other possible sanctions be effective, presumably regulations against ships transporting Russian oil?

The answers to these questions require us to a state of knowledge that we do not have, principally the actual state of the vulnerability of the Russian economy, and the power of Ukraine to hold on.

--- "The answers to these questions require us to a state of knowledge that we do not have, principally the actual state of the vulnerability of the Russian economy, and the power of Ukraine to hold on."

Good point. We have a quickly available "state" of this nation which began 2000 with a national debt of about $5 trillion, and twenty-five years later....

$ 37,284,510,479,122 and still rising rapidly

As has been said, "...if it can't go on forever it will stop."

Germany is paying 3.5x more for non-Russian energy... or for the Russian energy routed thru middlemen and business and factorys in Germany are closing up.

France is losing their overseas emprie; while only 4% of the population it accounts for 30% of French imports. Africa is pushing the west out.

Britian is an enery of America and Trump is breaking the conditions that Britian used to control the USA. I do not think that the Brit’s are close to an IMF bailout until next year.

Europe is financially devasted. The Ukraine conflict served two purposes for the US; we broke the EU as an economicl competitor by ruining their competitiveness using oil as the weapon.

Here at home in the US we too are financailly hurting. Trump cannot turn abour 40 years of economic policy that moved industry out; we have to rebuild our economy with manufacturing and have a balanced workforce.

Trump is selling weapons to the EU for Ukraine. Trump bragging about making profits off a war was the most idiotic statement that needed to be left unsaid. That one soundbite will do more damage to the reputation of the US in half the world than everything else he has done to present.

I also am a user of voice to text so don’t sweat the occasional error. I think people can read through it and it bothers us, who made them, more than others who . . . read through it.

Some items.

1) India’s GDP growth last year was 6%. Probably deserves some !!!!. Their surplus with the US is about $45B, and this is a pretty tiny % of their $2+Trillion GDP. It is much bigger hype than the numbers demand.

2) India’s oil consumption is about 5 million barrels/day and their domestic production is 900K bpd. There is hopeful talk floating about relevant to some suggested shut down of refinery buys from Russia. The specifics are government-owned refineries, and they are rather less than the majority of imports. The private refineries buy more oil and no one has said they stopped Russian oil buys. When the govt decides, as historically pretty much all govts do, that they will not be coerced by oil sanctions, the govt refineries will resume normal behavior. (See US response to Arab oil embargo, Japan response to FDR cutting off oil imports. No one accepts coercion derived from oil)

3) Reports say there are long, rage-inducing lines at Russian gas stations. I have a report on this. I went a youtube vid that was referenced by a website making these claims. It was a video of a car driving past a very long line of cars. Went on for a while to demonstrate line length. When the car got to the front of the line, it shut off filming. But too slowly in a world with pause clicks. The line of cars was heading into . . . some store. The store had no gas pumps. Don’t know what they were selling, but it wasn’t petrol.

4) Re interest rates and inflation. Russia has a slew of complex subsidies at the consumer level. They exist. I am no expert on them. They just get mentioned. When people see prices, they then go to GPT and ask for the average salary in Russia. Then they declare no one has enough money for rent and food. But oddly, those grocery store shelves are full and you can see employees wandering around stocking them. I see nobody emaciated. Nobody is starving.

5) As for the intricacies of banks and loans, Russia has a central bank just like everyone else. They had restrictions on it in the 1990s that caused Soviet failure as oil price fell (money supply was restricted to the Interior ministry’s 5 year plan, which needed to adjust upwards as oil price fell. It didn’t. They literally ran out of money). But those restrictions are gone. They are just like the Fed or ECB or BoE or BoJ or Peoples Bank of China. They can create money and inflation? Just cap it by decree. The US did that once.

It’s very very hard for a country with a central bank and nearly no debt on the books to fail because of money. Not going to happen in Russia. Especially not at 10 million barrels/day.