Mostly on Trump’s hastened ultimatum to Russia to seek peace terms in 10-12 days instead of 50.
Willy’s analysis: It will fail as Putin is achieving his goals through military attritional warfare.
Good summary - saw it earlier. Willie actually supports Ukraine, but tries to be realistic about what’s going on there.
Near Lyman south of Oskil the Ukrainians are attritting the Russians at a 66:1 ratio.
The point of the hastened “ultimatum” is to show Putin is not serious about peace proposals or cease fires.
Once President Trump can show this with clarity, President Trump has other options such as increased sanctions and/aid to Ukraine paid for by Europe.
I always read Willy, staunch supporter of Ukraine, tells the truth as he sees it, not a propagandist.
“Again why is Russia trying to drag
out the war? Because extending the war in a war of attrition with numerical superiority then works in your favor.”
The only significant and credible threat POTUS can wield is the threat of a strongly worded letter.
Even a massive increase in arms for Ukraine, is politically untenable.
Direct intervention? A joke.
Secondary sanctions? We’re not going to cut off our nose to spite our face. Other countries are going to keep buying from Russia.
Willy’s analysis: It will fail as Putin is achieving his goals through military attritional warfare.
Why then make an ultimatum? Attrition warfare takes time, and lots of equipment and manufacturing, as well as millions of live bodies to waste. The reality is: 1) Russian storage depots by satellite imaging are now empty of tanks and APC’s. 2) Russian airforce doesn’t fly over Ukraine territory anymore and is pressured from the Ukraine airforce by report. 3. Russia has lost so many people it’s getting troops from N.K., and the troops going into battle are green. How much difference is 35-40 days isn’t going to make a change in a 3+ year war, where in the lines haven’t changed much in years and it’s basically trench warfare and artillery? Probably not much.
I think Trump’s change is a setup. The Russians know they can’t survive secondary sanctions, so they are gobbling ground for a better negotiating position. They are going to commit to the ‘attack’ everything they have to get the territory. The Russians keep posting how weak the Ukrainians are, how thin the ranks. The trap is going to be the counter attack that happens in the fall when the Russians are exhausted.
Art of War. “When you are strong, look weak. When your weak, look strong.” “War is Deception”
Every person that has crossed Trump, like Vlad the Invader just did, has regretted it in the long run. Perhaps Vlad the Invader will be different, soon we shall see.