Willy’s analysis: It will fail as Putin is achieving his goals through military attritional warfare.
Why then make an ultimatum? Attrition warfare takes time, and lots of equipment and manufacturing, as well as millions of live bodies to waste. The reality is: 1) Russian storage depots by satellite imaging are now empty of tanks and APC’s. 2) Russian airforce doesn’t fly over Ukraine territory anymore and is pressured from the Ukraine airforce by report. 3. Russia has lost so many people it’s getting troops from N.K., and the troops going into battle are green. How much difference is 35-40 days isn’t going to make a change in a 3+ year war, where in the lines haven’t changed much in years and it’s basically trench warfare and artillery? Probably not much.
I think Trump’s change is a setup. The Russians know they can’t survive secondary sanctions, so they are gobbling ground for a better negotiating position. They are going to commit to the ‘attack’ everything they have to get the territory. The Russians keep posting how weak the Ukrainians are, how thin the ranks. The trap is going to be the counter attack that happens in the fall when the Russians are exhausted.
Art of War. “When you are strong, look weak. When your weak, look strong.” “War is Deception”
Every person that has crossed Trump, like Vlad the Invader just did, has regretted it in the long run. Perhaps Vlad the Invader will be different, soon we shall see.
I do think the carnage on both sides is great. Greater than reported.
Russia has superiority in artillery , drones, etc but they are also constantly on the offensive. Exposing their troops.
I bet both sides have lost a MILLION (KIA and WIA).
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