There are also these:
Posted on 07/28/2025 4:49:58 AM PDT by MtnClimber
How quickly things change.
It was barely more than a year ago that climate activists and federal bureaucrats thought they had maneuvered the internal combustion engine (ICE) automobile to the brink of extinction. ICE vehicles had become like dinosaurs, inferior to their new competitors the EVs, and therefore headed for the scrap heap of history. Customers were flocking to the trendy new EVs, which were seeing rapidly rising sales.
And the all-powerful federal bureaucracy was going to give the final push to put ICE vehicles out of their misery. On June 7, 2024 President Biden’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration had issued a final rule (“Corporate Average Fuel Economy [CAFE] Standards for Passenger Cars and Light Trucks for Model Years 2027 and Beyond and Fuel Efficiency Standards for Heavy-Duty Pickup Trucks and Vans for Model Years 2030 and Beyond”) jacking up mandatory average vehicle mileage to 50+ [mpg] as of 2031, with further increases to follow from there. Since no ICE vehicles bigger than a baby carriage could achieve that mileage, the only path forward for vehicle manufacturers would be rapid conversion to making only EVs. NHTSA’s mileage rule had also quickly followed an equally draconian mandate from EPA, finalized on April 18, 2024 (“Multi-Pollutant Emissions Standards for Model Years 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles”) setting strict and declining limits for CO2 emissions that no ICE vehicles would be able to meet by the early 2030s. And meanwhile, 2022’s Inflation Reduction Act had extended a $7500 tax credit to buyers of new EVs through December 31, 2032.
So all the pieces were in place. By some time in the early 2030s, it would be effectively illegal to sell new ICE cars, and they would be rapidly disappearing from the roads.
Well, not so fast. Suddenly, the rapid advance of the EV may have stalled out completely. The federal regulators have reversed their direction. And customer preferences seemingly favorable to EVs may turn out to evaporate as soon as federal tax benefits end, an event now just a couple of months away.
NHTSA’s CAFE standards just got eviscerated by the “One Big Beautiful Bill” Act. Although the standards themselves have not yet been rescinded, the OBBB re-set the enforcement mechanism to have a maximum penalty of zero. This is from a July 8, 2025 memo from the law firm Sidley & Austin:
In one of its many changes, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, enacted on July 4, 2025, eliminated civil penalties for noncompliance with federal fuel economy standards. Specifically, Section 40006 of the Act amends the language of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) statute to reset the maximum civil penalty to $0.00. Although the statute and its implementing regulations otherwise remain in place, this amendment removes any civil penalties for producing passenger cars and light trucks that do not meet fuel economy requirements.
As to the EPA-mandated CO2 emissions limits for vehicles, EPA announced on March 12, 2025 that it was beginning a process of reconsidering the vehicle greenhouse gas emissions rule that had just been adopted less than a year before. Excerpt:
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin announced the agency will reconsider the Model Year 2027 and Later Light-Duty and Medium-Duty Vehicles regulation and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles. In addition to imposing over $700 billion in regulatory and compliance costs, these rules provided the foundation for the Biden-Harris electric vehicle mandate that takes away Americans’ ability to choose a safe and affordable car for their family and increases the cost of living on all products that trucks deliver.
That one may be in the regulatory grinder for many months, but with little doubt as to what the final result will be, namely full rescission.
And the $7500 per new vehicle tax credit? After just having been extended to 2032 by the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the credit has now been modified by the OBBBA to end as of September 30, 2025. From Kiplinger, July 12:
With the passage of President Donald Trump’s 2025 tax reform, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) the federal EV tax credit will expire for vehicles purchased or leased after September 30, 2025. As a result, buyers have only a short window left to take advantage of these federal savings.
All of a sudden, EVs and ICE vehicles are set to compete on a completely level playing field, with no mandates or tax credits propping up the EV side of the competition. How will that turn out? It remains to be seen, but data from the first half of the year indicate that the previous rapid increase in EV sales may already be stalling out. In a reversal for a previously rapidly-growing market segment, sales of EVs in the second quarter of 2025 declined significantly from the same period the prior year. From Cox Automotive, July 14, 2025:
[S]ales of new electric vehicles (EVs) in the second quarter of 2025 were lower year over year by 6.3%, in line with the Cox Automotive forecast. A total of 310,839 new EVs were sold in the U.S, down from 331,853 in the same period a year earlier. Sales in Q2 were higher than in Q1 by 4.9%, and total EV sales through the first half of 2025 set a record at 607,089, representing a 1.5% year-over-year increase.
Cox continues to predict a spike in EV sales in the third quarter of 2025, in the run-up to the expiration of the tax credit on September 30. However, after that, it is entirely likely that there will be a significant decline. Without the government mandates and subsidies, it’s hard to see EVs expanding much beyond being a niche product used as a second (or third) vehicle by affluent buyers.
“Hopefully they retool and bring back sixes and eights that don’t need turbo thrust.”
Can’t be repeated enough.
For EV makers, there is a glimmer of hope. A small, practical cold fusion device is supposedly set to be released to market this year.
They weren’t really that good of toy. You set them on an oval and they go round and round. The gravity racing was much more entertaining.
Hopefully they will bring back small turbo diesels which are really the best engines. 3.0L and under. 4and 6.
Don’t forget increased tire costs, depreciation, and/or battery replacement.
All too often the incentives provided by government under the auspices of “doing good things” are really just a vehicle to transfer public funds into the pockets of the “connected” either directly or indirectly.
Think of the times they predict power shortages -- we take the gas pickup. Think of times gas was $5/gallon and there were shortages (IMHO gas is still a bit too high) -- take the EV. We don't have all of our transportation eggs in one basket for the Dims to mess up. And that's long trip driving.
For short trip driving our EV trips don't require us to buy energy from the over-regulated power market because in the south it's good for our home solar. Most of the power that we pull from the grid occurs during the 4 wintery months from November to February. The other 8 months we hardly pull from the grid -- including when we charge our EV for 1,500 miles per month. IMHO being a conservative is more than just voting for the right people and demanding govt be smaller and less intrusive. Being a conservative is looking for ways to reduce how much govt can interfere with our lives. The left has made it clear that they're over-regulating energy, so I chose to make our energy consumption be more from homemade energy (including our driving, since the EV can take advantage of power made from decentralized solar).
Only a leftist would substitute ‘maneuvered’ for ‘regulated’.
I don’t know the author, but I stopped reading right there.
If he didn’t see the writing on the wall, then he really is the idiot I first believed him to be.
Was it ever alive or just Leftest government dreams
This is becoming an issue for ferry transportation and RORO auto vessels. Some ferry companies have banded EVs altogether, while others have banned them if they have visible signs of damage. There was an article the other day about people not being able to get their banged up EVs off Vancouver Island. A shipping company Matson has just banned all EV shipments which includes Hawaii..
Will EVs survive having to compete on a level playing field?
Yes, just not as well.
Where’s the pic of all the ford ev trucks packed into a field?
There are tons of EV and hybrid cars on the road, and many people love them, while many do not. Let the market determine what succeeds and what fails in business.
I watched a Polestar and a Dodge Challenger HEMI rocket off the line merging onto the highway. The Polestar was GONE, leaving the HEMI in its dust! I’ll admit, I was a bit shocked.
That said, determining the kind of cars produced and who gets rewarded for producing what type of car is NOT the government’s role.
And don't forget less brake pad wear with most braking done through regen. So I assumed the brake pad savings to offset the tire wear extra cost. So far that seems to be right.
As far as battery replacement goes, that's 100% correct, assuming we'll want to replace it at 10 years. But on the other hand I was buying a used ICE car every 7 years (we drive a lot). Will we replace the EV battery at 10 years? I dunno. It depends on if we eventually replace the old gas pickup (190K miles). We don't drive it much, so it may last another 20 years. Or we may have to replace the gas pickup and it be the newer, more comfortable car we take on trips anyway. Thus the EV's battery wouldn't need replacing if it still has plenty of range for local driving (which is where the real gas savings is -- the home charged miles).
As far as depreciation goes, that might matter to others, but not to those of us who drive a car till the wheels fall off. Every time I've sold a car I've gotten so little out of it anyway, I intend for the EV to be no different.
6 years from now in 2031 will be the break-even point of the EV/solar/home energy remodeling project's savings = extra cost. So far it's saved me $7,200 in cash flow (think of that as $7,200 staying in our Roth IRA's to grow tax free) while I make payments to a loan I took out to buy supplies and hire contractors for the project (including making payments on the EV beyond the $400/month savings we did to buy/repair our cars). That year 2031 be the 9 year anniversary of owning the EV and the 10 year anniversary of the small solar system I installed to try it out in my climate with mine and my wife's energy consumption habits. I liked it enough to convert my 2 nat gas appliances to electric, upgrade the solar and batteries, and buy the EV (since it was time to replace my wife's gas crossover anyway). That was in year 2022. In year 2031 the total energy cost savings - extra costs that come with an EV will equal the balance left in the loan. That doesn't include the gains from the cash flow savings being money left in our Roth IRA's growing tax free (I left that out to add some pessimism to my project engineering).
Every month I track this when I get a power statement. My inverters tell me how much power I consumed during that billing period, compared to how much the power company says I pulled from them (they don't know about the 80% of my power I consume that didn't go through the meter because my solar system kept it in house). I also look at my EV odometer to see how many miles I drove that month and look at the price of gas at the nearest gas station. And for every 5K miles my spreadsheet calculates an oil change savings (based on the cost of the last time I had the oil changed in the gas pickup).
Today, we have electric cars that are firebombs on wheels. Not that every EV bursts into flames. No, EV fires are very, very hard to put out using current fire fighting techniques. It's like we have a seventy-story building and fire truck ladders can only reach the bottom ten floors. Ships have been severely damaged by them, because shipboard fire fighting gear is worthless against fires with their own oxidizer.
My apartment lease has a ban on battery-powered plug-in cars. No exceptions. That's why there isn't a single Tesla badge on the property. So far, the ban does not extend to hybrids...yet.
If we every have another "safety czar" rise from the ashes, you may see the current EV cars declared a public safety hazard. Then we will see how the EV makes transition to safer battery chemistry.
will EVs survive when auto makers are freed to manufacture vehicles folks REALLY want to buy AND without the need for Federal bribes? ... i think the answer is clear, and the answer is “NO”, EVs will be deader than the Dodo bird ...
THE CREDIT FOR FORD/GM & OTHERS-—ALL UNION COMPANIES -—IS $7500.
ELON IS NOT UNION -—THEIR CREDIT IS ONLY $5000
Its called a single cylinder engine because inlet and exhaust occur at the same time...clever design of the inlet manifold causes swirling while exhaust goes on.
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