I am basing my thoughts on historical precedent. I understand the whole, “Russian speaking” population argument. But, I also understand that the natural state of humans is they don’t like being “occupied.”
And I never underestimate the CIA’s ability to screw things up.
Time will tell.
I agree with both of your statements, especially the one about the CIA. The first one is certainly true as well, but what I don't know is whether or not the people who live in the region consider themselves to be "occupied" or "liberated".