NASA warns asteroid now has 4% chance of striking the MOON in 2032

endtimeheadlines.org ^ | April 07, 2025 | Staff

[SunkenCiv]

“...too many jokes...must mock Joey...”

[MRadtke]

I don’t think an asteroid like that would measurably alter the Moon’s orbit, even with the fine measuring techniques we have today. IMO, the greater danger would be random debris thrown up from the impact, some possibly impacting Earth.

[wildcard_redneck]

The Moon’s orbit is not going to be altered by an asteroid 60 meters in diameter. It’s like saying a man is gonna be knocked over by flea landing on his head. Study up on Newtonian physics karen.

[butlerweave]

If it hit the Moon it would make the Moon heavier and it could crash into the Earth and WE ALL DIE \o/

[Phlyer]

But once it enters our gravitational system it’s future course will be unpredictably altered.

Actually, by that time the predictions will be pretty good already. The real problem for most of these reports is that people don't really understand the statistics.

Here's the process: We identify, usually by optical telescope, a body that is not fixed against the distant stars - hence it's an asteroid or comet (or dwarf planet, or moon, or whatever label you want). We take measurements of the apparent position. Each measurement has an uncertainty. On the basis of three measurements, we can compute an orbit. in this case, it misses both Earth and Luna.

However, then the astronomers start to vary the measurements within the limits of the uncertainty. All combinations (within some small segment each to keep the problem from becoming infinite) are used to calculate new orbits. Some of those (near the nominal readings) are higher probability and some (at the extremes of the uncertainty) are lower in probability. After all of these are calculated, an overall probability of impact (on Earth, or Luna as desired) is calculated.

The resolution to this is more measurements, and in particular measurements distant from each other. From that the range of options (within the uncertainty) is reduced. By the time it arrives in our area in 2032, the orbit will be pretty well defined.

The 'unpredictable' element is that (very) small differences within the remaining uncertainty in its actual orbit can still result in larger differences in the long-term orbit when a very large perturbation (getting near Earth or Luna) is added. But it will be quickly recalculated, and with much better accuracy than our current distant, close together, optical measurements.

[GingisK]

That is completely unacceptable! I want a 100% chance of it hitting Washington DC.

[Verginius Rufus]

I find it amazing that they believe they can calculate the asteroid's orbit so accurately in 2032 that they think it has a better chance of hitting the moon than hitting the earth.

2032 is a long time away. If I'm alive and well in 2032, I'll worry about the asteroid then.

[Ezekiel]

Why on Earth is anyone Panican?

It’ll buff right out.

Residents of the Moon hit hardest —

Luna tics.

[DownInFlames]

Just proves NASA stands for Not About Space Anymore.

[Mastador1]

We are always gonna die, it was the plan from the start.

[Charles Martel]

Send Us Thine Asteroid, O Lord!

[SuperLuminal]

Standing by for the non-DEI recalculation of Apophis’ trajectory...

[vikingd00d]

Clearly, the moon has NEVER been hit by an asteroid before, otherwise, we’d see evidence like craters on its surface.

[CodeToad]

I wouldn’t trust NASA to tell me the time of day.

[Semper Vigilantis]

NASA 2025

[N. Theknow]

asteroid craters are absolutely amazing. Look how close this one came to hitting the visitor's center!

[Semper Vigilantis]

LMAO

[Professional Engineer]

There was a TV series about this.

[SunkenCiv]

The odds of impact will probably get crater and crater as the time approaches.

[If You Want It Fixed - Fix It]

Quick! Stop burning coal!