There are a few different stories that indicate China’s population is not only not replacing itself, but that the 1 Billion plus number is actually more like 800 Million and the government is just too scared to admit it.
India... 1.4 billion... And growing every day. China... 1.4 billion... And growing every day.
We’ve gone from 2 billion to 8 billon in 100 years... At that rate... We will be far too big to sustain ourselves in another 100 years. There just isn’t enough resources.
Per official numbers India became the largest country in population near the end of 2023, at about 1.45 billion each. China’s population decreased in 2023, officially for the first time, and by a lot. Deaths were reported at 12 million, as expected, but reported births dropped from 12 million all the way to 10 million.
I don’t expect birth rates to drop by 2 million per year for the the next five years, but already the steady state Chinese population dropped from 12 million x 80 = 960 million, to 10 million x 80 = 800 million. If Chinese births continue to mirror Japan’s drop, we can expect a drop to 6 million births per year, and a steady-state population of 6 million x 80 = 480 million. Or lower. Already, there is no point in imperialism, as China already has more housing than people, and the mismatch will only grow over time.
Even Mormons, Amish, and Orthodox Jews have had their fertility rates drop from 8-10 children per family to 4-5 children. That’s a 50% drop. Muslims in Gaza (but not the West Bank) continue to lead the world in fertility rates, so, like Hercules cleaning the stables, the immediate future looks like more shovels. In 100 years? Anything can happen.