Posted on 11/10/2024 5:04:52 PM PST by willk
The incumbent Republican has a very narrow lead. 49.1 to 48.5. According to Decision Desk most of the Republican Counties are >95% except Cochise which is now at 60%. The blue Pima County is at 92%. I tried to estimate using current vote percentages in those 2 counties and I came to the conclusion that the Republican should win by about 6000 votes. We are only up 2000 now even though total votes in at Cochise went from 51 to 60% in and Pima stayed the same at 92% in (since I did my calculations). I think we were ahead by 2300 votes when I did my calculations.
Election fraud in Arizona.
Explains everything.
Two hours ago, the lead was 0.337%. Now, it’s 0.568%. Not sure what the automatic recount threshold is for a House seat in AZ.
AP reporting 2,093 (R) with 83% reporting
The district is primarily heavy R but also includes a portion of Pima (D) County where the population is higher.
Hopefully Team Lara is watching carefully.
Be Advised: The longer the count continues, the more successful the Demcrat/Communist Party cheating will be. Cheating only goes in one direction.
DDHQ shows 2,093 (R) with 91% reporting
I just did an analysis on that
Arizona U.S. Representative in Congress - District No. 6 is close and probably goes to the RAT
Repub. Ciscomani - up 2,092 bsllotd - 49.1%
Rat Engel - 48.5%
but Pima, the only RAT county in the district, has 79,442 votes left to count and the RAT is up 52.7% to 45% there.
Pinal, Graham and Cochise counties are Repub and combined have only 31,430 to count.
cripes.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/arizona-us-house-district-6-results (nice hover over the counties)
https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/47/0 (summary)
https://apps.arizona.vote/electioninfo/BPS/47/0 (County ballot count update list)
Not heavily Republican at all. Biden won it by a fraction of a point in 2020, using the current district lines. It’s a toss-up at all levels.
GOP has a small registration advantage, 36 percent to 30.
Okay. FWIW, the counties within or partially within
Cochise County +30 Trump
Greenlee County +41 Trump
Graham County +48 Trump
Pinal County +22 Trump
Pima County +17 Harris
Question: is northeast PIMA County MAGA territory?
Just bear in mind that Pima County has a HUGE divide between Tucson, which is probably 70% democrat, and the remainder of the county which is solidly Republican. The end result will depend entirely on what part of the county those votes are from.
“Cheating only goes in one direction.”
Then why is the Republican doing better now than on Election night?
An update on CD-2 Maine
On Thursday and Friday, the Democrat was ahead by 3000 votes,
this morning he is ahead by only 600.
The Maine Secretary of State, Bellows has indicated that since no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, RCV is now triggered.
And yes, that Bellows who tried to keep President Trump’s name off the primary ballot.
The Pima County section has most of the votes and is NOT MAGA country. This district often flips back and forth between parties. It is Martha McSally’s old district, sort of. Cochise is vastly better but not as many votes there.
This is a rematch race, first fought in 2022:
Juan Ciscomani / Kirsten Engel
Republican / Democratic
177,201 / 171,969
50.7% / 49.3%
Tight race again.
Graham is done counting.
Greenlee has 1 vote to count.
Repub is up 2093 ballots or .6%
Greenlee\Cochise\Pinal have 31,424 ballots left to count.
Pima has 79442 ballots left to count.
“Just bear in mind that Pima County has a HUGE divide between Tucson, which is probably 70% democrat, and the remainder of the county which is solidly Republican. The end result will depend entirely on what part of the county those votes are from.”
That is what I was afraid of
appreciated
In AZ, Republicans tend to vote later then Democrats.
That’s why Ciscomani had already came from almost 10% deficit on election night to a slight lead. So, regardless of the counties, I expect him to pull ahead more. I feel the numbers are quite save for him.
But, this year, Reps were instructing people to vote earlier, and some headed that advise.
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