Not heavily Republican at all. Biden won it by a fraction of a point in 2020, using the current district lines. It’s a toss-up at all levels.
GOP has a small registration advantage, 36 percent to 30.
Okay. FWIW, the counties within or partially within
Cochise County +30 Trump
Greenlee County +41 Trump
Graham County +48 Trump
Pinal County +22 Trump
Pima County +17 Harris
Question: is northeast PIMA County MAGA territory?
This is a rematch race, first fought in 2022:
Juan Ciscomani / Kirsten Engel
Republican / Democratic
177,201 / 171,969
50.7% / 49.3%
Tight race again.