There are a lot of head fakes going on both sides. The Democrats are publicly fretting, but privately confident. The betting markets are showing Harris surging in MI and WI.
I just reread that Nate Silver on early voting a couple of more times to make sure I understood his methodology.
He was comparing raw early voting totals to actual final results.
That is not what I am doing—at all.
I am using the Pew methodology based on early mail in votes, early in person votes and election day votes.
I think those are going to turn out be accurate in almost all states—but I will acknowledge that Colorado and CA are very weird—and on the other side early vote may overstate the Democratic margin in MD (which nobody cares about anyway :-) ).
To be blunt I think you are wildly off on this election—not even close.