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I just reread that Nate Silver on early voting a couple of more times to make sure I understood his methodology.

He was comparing raw early voting totals to actual final results.

That is not what I am doing—at all.

I am using the Pew methodology based on early mail in votes, early in person votes and election day votes.

I think those are going to turn out be accurate in almost all states—but I will acknowledge that Colorado and CA are very weird—and on the other side early vote may overstate the Democratic margin in MD (which nobody cares about anyway :-) ).

To be blunt I think you are wildly off on this election—not even close.