I think this is how the polymarket works -
If bettors on the polymarket bought shares on a PDJT election win at $0.45 a share six months ago and it went up to $.065, they might sell their shares now and take their ~45% profit and leave the polymarket. People selling to realize their profits will look the same as a lack of confidence and reduce the price of the Trump shares while increasing the price of the Harris shares since the bettors are betting against each other, not the house. The change in share prices isn’t necessarily a reflection of voter intention. It’s an investment that was maximized and then the investor exited the market, changing the balance of shares held by the other investors/bettors, and the associated share prices.
I urge someone to correct my understanding if I’ve misstated anything.
Trump currently up on polymarket 59-41.
According to Patrick Byrne, a source within Kamala Harris’s team claims they’re entirely confident in winning the election, disregarding poll numbers.
https://truthsocial.com/@ShadowofEzra17/113410317702085508
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