I think the reason is that they have info not openly shared. In addition when looking at seat flips that have been called Rs are up a net 2.
Per 270towin, which has been late on a lot of calls, Rs are at 213 right now. That means we need 5.
There are 22 races not yet called. 10 range from safe to leaning D. That leaves 12 seats.
1 of the seats not called in Washington is a lock already because it’s 2 Rs running against each other. So 4 to go out of 11 remaining.
AK R is up ~5% with 74% counted. Big gap to close. Non-Rs are splitting the vote 3 ways between 2 Ds and 1 OTH. I’d consider this one a hard R, except I don’t understand the stupid rank voting rules. Otherwise I’d be confident of an R here, but will leave it at 4 to go.
MD 6 is within 1400 votes with 11% remaining. D is up.
CO8 is within 2200 votes with 21% remaining. D is up.
AZ1 R is up over 9,000 votes with 81% in. Hard to close that gap. Estimated 79k votes left. Would need to go 35k R/44k D or 55% D for just a catchup tie. I’m calling this one a safe R a bit early. That makes it 3 to go.
AZ6 is within 817 votes with R in lead but only 77% in...who can tell unless you know where the outstanding votes are coming from.
Brings us to Cali with 3 to go for control.
CA22 - R ahead 10k (55% to 45%), 57% in. of the remaining 74k votes the D needs 42k or 57% just to tie. Early to say, but I think this one is safe. So down to 2 for control.
CA27 - R ahead 2.1% with 72% in. This one is much closer at only 4700 differential. But of 88k votes outstanding, D has to do 53% to tie. It’s tight enough that I won’t call it, but I’m pretty sure this will end up an R.
CA41 - R ahead 2.8% with 69% in and not quite a 7k lead. similar to CA22 on what D needs to claw back to tie. I’d call this one an R and say we are down to 1 for control.
CA45 - R ahead 10k (4.2%) with 72% in. of the 92K votes outstanding, D needs to get 51k or 56%. Again don’t see them making that happen. So I’d say this gives Rs control of house.
CA47 - R ahead by <1%, 76% counted. Not a lock, but think we’ll take it - not counting toward control.
So....I think that’s why a lot of guys are feeling confident right now. We have what looks to be enough to take control with those that are more easily headed the R direction...with lots of potential wins...and Alaska who know with rank choice.
Many thankQs for the info!!!!
Watch CA indeed!
See bitt’s graphic with q drop about CA:
https://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/4273931/posts?page=2922#2922
270towin just called CA22 for Valadao (R) with only 59% in but it’s 55.1% to 45% so call is likely based on what is left to report and the amount of the gap to close (10k). That puts us at 216, needing only 2 more to have definite control.
Also just read that on the Alaska race we split the R ticket last time around which is how the D got the House seat, but this time the shoe is on the other foot, so we have a real chance to avoid the rank choice thing and flip that seat back.
GOOD POST!
Thanks for your valuable update.
Great info on House Races Reed! Thank you!
I’m spitballing a guess here that Alex believes this because there are Republican pockets the lefties haven’t counted on purpose.
But what do I know. I’ve only been watching these races since Nixon erased his own tapes and even convinced my own father at 18 he needed to vote Reagan. I didn’t trust HW Bush because he was the DNI/CIA Director and i told him Bush is a weasel and the See eye Aye killed Kennedy.
Reagan winning was the moments my father respected my opinions. HW confirming what a weasel he was a few years later solidified his faith in my ability to not be sucked in by a politico’s propaganda.
Our whole relationship changed in those two defining moments…..I hope that this win for the country will do the same for all those who voted to elect Trump and a Republican controlled Senate and House…..