I doubt your premise, but even if China gets to the moon before SpaceX, the Starship fleet within a few short years will have orders of magnitude more launch capacity than the rest of the world combined and thus in a position to completely control low earth orbit, if necessary.
The premise is simple - right now NASA’s moon program is almost 5 years behind schedule; China’s program is on schedule.
NASA’s lunar program has not decided how to proceed - its completely unraveled. Set backs on Starship have pushed it back further.
It will take 15 refueling to get one crew to the moon and more to get them home. Starship is too heavy - the stainless steel weighs many many times the more expensive composite every one else uses.
How many refuelings will it take to get one crew to Mars? Far too many to even contemplate.
Musk will have to switch to composite at some point to achieve the goals he has set. Its all about mass and weight.
“thus in a position to completely control low earth orbit, if necessary.”
Define “completely control”. No one has the ability or could have the ability to do that.