The premise is simple - right now NASA’s moon program is almost 5 years behind schedule; China’s program is on schedule.
NASA’s lunar program has not decided how to proceed - its completely unraveled. Set backs on Starship have pushed it back further.
It will take 15 refueling to get one crew to the moon and more to get them home. Starship is too heavy - the stainless steel weighs many many times the more expensive composite every one else uses.
How many refuelings will it take to get one crew to Mars? Far too many to even contemplate.
Musk will have to switch to composite at some point to achieve the goals he has set. Its all about mass and weight.
“Its all about mass and weight”
Well, weight is not an operational property in space and mass is really only relevant during launch and thrust maneuvers. 33 rocket engines can overcome a lot.