In 2020, named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, all exceeded the forecasted numbers by NOAA and CSU. Where 13-19 named storms were predicted, the Atlantic Basin saw 30.
In 2021, the Gulf again was more active than predicted by both NOAA and CSU, with 21 named storms, after 13-20 were predicted. NOAA and CSU were accurate in predicting major hurricanes, of which the Atlantic Basin saw four.
But 2022 was a calmer year in the Gulf, on the low end of both organizations’ predictions. And 2023 saw slightly more activity than predicted.
All this to say: this far out, predictions are tough and things will definitely change.
The more storms you name the more catastrophic the weather is. I was hit by a breeze named mufasa so that’s proof . A truck went by and kicked up another storm which I named Peterbilt.
I can’t remember when we last had so FEW storms this far into August.
And look at the NHC today:
Quote: “There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.”
Not an invest, storm or wave. NOTHING.