Posted on 08/23/2024 1:44:51 PM PDT by Ennis85
Let me stipulate for the record: The American press is an embarrassment. Journalists are being unfair in their coverage. CNN and Politico and the New York Times and the Associated Press and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt and NPR News are hyping Kamala Harris as the second coming and putting a thumb, two hands, and a 45-pound dumbbell on the scales in an attempt to prop her up.
It also doesn’t matter. None of it is remotely decisive.
The reason why the Republican Party is, at the moment, on track to lose the 2024 election is that the Republican Party is a minority coalition that picked a very unpopular 78-year-old retread as its candidate.
Yes, this summer when the public was faced with the choice between the Democrats’ unpopular, probably senile, octogenarian Joe Biden and the Republicans’ unpopular, definitely nuts, septuagenarian Donald Trump, it seemed like the American people would reluctantly go with Trump.
But at the same time, American voters for two years running had loudly and repeatedly told both parties, pollsters, and anyone who would listen that they preferred a different set of choices. The dominant emotion that most Americans felt about the coming election was dread. And then, in a remarkable turn of events, the Democratic Party gave Americans another option: Kamala Harris.
Is Harris an ideal candidate? Is she an incredibly talented orator? Is she deft on her feet and nimble in debate? Is she a famous wonk? Does she have a long track record of competence at the state and federal level? Has she been scrutinized by a tough no-nonsense press and come out stronger on the other side? No, of course not — but she’s an alternative to Trump/Biden, and that’s probably going to be enough.
The avalanche of “Did You Know That Kamala Harris Likes to Cook?” fluff stories in the New York Times and the embarrassing “Doug Emhoff, Modern-Day Sex Symbol” pieces in the Washington Post are not going to change the fundamental dynamic of this election. And that dynamic is this: The GOP electoral coalition is the smaller, weaker coalition. It’s lost the popular vote seven out of nine times in my lifetime (I’m 36). It has lost the Electoral College three out of the last four cycles. Conservatives might not be very eager to hear this, but “We the People” are mostly Democrats.
Does that make it impossible for Republicans to win this time around? Certainly not. Republicans won sweeping victories in 2010, 2014, and 2016.
Notably, however, the Republicans were outsiders in all three of those big election-year wins, and the public was putting the GOP in power as a check against Democrats.
Donald Trump won by a razor’s edge in 2016 and yet has carried on as though he was given a huge national mandate and enjoys major popular support when there’s zero evidence for that proposition. The Trump-led Republican Party got crushed in 2018, Trump himself lost in 2020, and Republicans underperformed in 2022. Despite a relatively strong economy during his presidency, Trump has never been popular. According to Gallup, Trump never topped 49 percent in his approval rating during his presidency. Not once. And it was often much lower. During his shambolic initial response to the pandemic and his regular appearances on The Trump Show, those lunatic pandemic-era daily press briefings, his approval rating fell to 39 percent. After rising a bit to 46 percent during the stretch run of the 2020 election (enough, of course, to still lose), Trump’s approval crashed to 36 percent after the January 6 riot.
Moreover, during the current 2024 cycle, Trump has never been close to popular, even when it looked like he might defeat the politically mortally wounded Biden campaign and regain the presidency after last June’s debate. In mid July, before Biden dropped out and while Trump was building what looked like a solid lead in the polls, Trump’s approval rating stood at 42 percent. Almost 54 percent of Americans told pollsters that they disapproved of Trump!
So why is anyone surprised that, with the American people having been given another option — an option that isn’t Joe Biden, isn’t Donald Trump, and isn’t a million years old — Trump is showing such weakness?
For twelve years, Donald Trump’s version of the Republican Party has acted like it’s a majority party when talking to itself, while its political and electoral strategy was always limited to “How can we squeeze by, by the hair of our chinny-chin-chin, in a few key swing states?”
Yes, again, Trump may yet win this November. He could slip by in Pennsylvania and the Upper Midwest by a few thousand votes. Harris may falter. But even if Trump wins, Republicans should still understand that he will take power with a small, weak coalition that somehow managed to thread the needle.
Trump isn’t losing because Kamala Harris is being hyped by the press and fluffed up to kingdom come. He isn’t losing because the press is being unfair to him. He’s losing because he’s a weak, unpopular, undisciplined candidate running at the head of a weak, minority electoral coalition. That’s the truth, whether anyone wants to hear it or not.
The question for Republicans is: Are they ready to stop whining and complaining about the press and work to build a true majority coalition — like the ones they used to form — topped by young, charismatic, winsome candidates and built to win big, crushing majorities that turn blue states purple and purple states red? Because if they are, I’m not seeing any evidence for it. Are you?
National Review!? Irrelevant and part of the Swamp. Discount everything they say.
Bkmk
Almost every major institution in this country has been corrupted by thep global left. But nosiree, not the RCP.
LOL!
I've been thinking just that myself.
The leftists have driven the wedge too deep and turned the temperature up too high for there to be any other outcome.
And Trump is running ahead of GOP House and Senate candidates in key races.
The RCP average includes several polls which are not accounting for response bias. Democrats were excited and eager to answer. If you dig into the crosstabs on several of these polls they have a D+5, D+7 etc electorate. The electorate that will vote in November will look nothing like that. If you follow the more reliable polls which account for response bias, Trump has consistently led in them.
Nice piece except my Never Trump moronic friend, Trump is ahead and cruising to a landslide.
I wasn’t sure but now I know Trump’s ahead. Thanks, NR for the good news. The panic is setting in. The worst people in Washington are the traitorous rinos, worse than all the democrats combined.
He is very unpopular with illegal aliens, freeloading parasites who live off of government largess, people who hate America, people who denigrate whites, and the list goes on and on.
He's not behind, and the sour grapes from the retarded National Review continue, and also continue to be ignored by almost all Americans.
National Review is obsolete as NATO. Both need to die.
Typical NR claptrap...
For the past 40-years it has been an imitation of the NYSlimes...
A fine gentleman has to be spinning in his grave...
Bookmark
And he isnt unpopular
We have lost the Popular Vote in seven of the last eight Presidential elections.
George W. Bush received 50.7% of the Popular Vote in his 2004 reelection.
The reason the GOP is a Minority party is because a solid majority of Republicans quietly support, or quietly ignore, massive LEGAL immigration.
New Naturalized USA citizens, and their 18+ year old children, vote 70% for the Democratic Party.
In 2017, 2018, and 2019 - before Covid - Donald Trump Naturalized more new citizens than Barack Obama did in 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Including the children who have turned 18, Trump Naturalized close to 4 million new voters.
70% of them will vote against Donald Trump in 2024.
The GOP-USA has consciously and deliberately committed political suicide.
RCP average doesn’t mean anything because it is a conglomeration of a bunch of skewed polls.
Ridiculous nonsense.
Trump rallies bring crowds of tens of thousands, and he’s still doing it 8 years later.
There’s no American politician in any era with such enduring popularity.
This is RINO DENIAL in the extreme, all sour grapes.
Trump has accomplished the very thing the uniparty has been terrified of since Reagan left office.
He has built an anti Swamp movement that has the power to dethrone them.
Obama himself said that democrats no longer needed working class American support, and he assumed that they had nowhere else to go.
RINOs would keep them out of the GOP with legislative efforts like RIGHT TO WORK.
Then, in 2015, to the horror of both parties, here comes somebody with national name recognition, the charisma and money to put everyday American issues back on the front burner.
I’ve been voting for more than 50 years, and I’ve been following politics for 60 years, and I have never seen anybody with the sustained popularity of Donald Trump.
This National Review article is not a serious assessment of DJT’s sustained support by average, everyday Americans.
It is a poke in the eye to Trump supporters by failing RINOs who simply cannot believe that they cannot soften Trump support, even after trying every dirty trick they could muster. I’m sure that they’re not done yet, either.
They are very surprised at the strength of will of the American people now that they have found their champion.
The Day of Reckoning is fast approaching for the Swamp creatures, and I think we’ll see a stampede at passport offices across America as these treasonous clowns become desperate to find destinations with no extradition back to the States.
There is no more accomplished American President than Donald Trump.
With the single exception of Reagan, he did more in his four years than the last ten presidents when it comes to world peace, economic revival, race relations, and prosperity.
The hard left Swamp, built by decades of democrats stealing elections, are terrified of Trump’s return.
They should be.
If Trump has never been popular, why did Biden was replaced by Kemala then?
Which means they were all cool with turning this country over to Hillary Clinton.
The below article is an interesting take on some of the polls in the RCP Avg. if anything the RCP Avg you linked to demonstrated a problem for Harris. Despite some questionable polls, she is only up by 1.5% well within the margin of error. She should be up much higher at this phase. Polls before Labor Day are junk. Valid polling numbers will start appearing around the middle of October.
Another never Trumper looking for attention.
He probably called Geoff Duncan to help him form complete sentences.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.