Trump is winning according to RCP.
RCP is useless at this point. Most of the polls were done with Biden and before the convention. No poll was done after the convention and before the switch (This was good timing by the Democrats as you never saw a post convention bounce for Trump). The play was the Arizona and Florida play from 2020. Never let it look like Trump is up.
They have not yet included the latest polls in the weighting. Once they do, Trump will start falling back. It is almost certain to happen, per Trump’s pollster.