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There are flaws in this logic.
The original idea in provoking this war was to force a regime change to put a puppet in change of Russia
Not only it has ultimately failed, a significant Western influence in Russia was completely wiped out and it is going to have a lasting effect, for no less than two generations.
Take into account that two decades ago Washington literally owned Russian politics, it had enough influence to have its way a decade ago, the majority of Russians were pro-Western just three years ago. Now there is no influential group in the society that doesn’t hate the West with a passion. It will reflect on Russian foreign policy for sure.
The attempts to isolate Russia mostly failed, Putin has become a hero of the Third World. He launched a dedollarization campaign that works just fine - a real danger for the US that didn’t exist three years ago.
I’d say that your prediction that a lot is going to be left of Ukraine is overtly optimistic but let’s say a rump state remains.
It is going to be economically unviable requiring enormous support and a huge drain for the West.
Let’s say that Russia is completely divorces from the West.
What is the upside? It has China right across the border.
In light of future Western confrontation with China a lot is said about a maritime blocade of China.
Take into account that the Chinese GDP is only 20% depends on exports right now. Even if a maritime part of it is wiped out which is very unlikely because the US depends on the Chinese goods more than China on export sales, they can afford it to rely on internal economy that makes in excess of 80% of GDP. All they need to keep it running is natural resources. And now they have Russia isolated from the West right across the border which has all they need. What did you achieve this way?