Thank you! I haven't had time to go ask it questions yet today. But I just took a short break to do so...
I just asked ChatGPT 4o two questions using PERT, please provide estimates on Biden (1) Resigning and (2) Dropping Reelection at several upcoming dates.
Results:
For Biden Resigning:
- By July 4th: Minimum 10%, Maximum 30%, Most Likely 20%, PERT Estimate 20%
- By July 7th: Minimum 15%, Maximum 35%, Most Likely 25%, PERT Estimate 25%
- By the start of the Republican convention: Minimum 25%, Maximum 55%, Most Likely 40%, PERT Estimate 40%
- By the start of the Democrat convention: Minimum 35%, Maximum 65%, Most Likely 50%, PERT Estimate 50%
For Biden Abandoning Reelection:
- By July 4th: Minimum 15%, Maximum 35%, Most Likely 25%, PERT Estimate 25%
- By July 7th: Minimum 20%, Maximum 45%, Most Likely 30%, PERT Estimate ≈ 30.83%
- By the start of the Republican convention: Minimum 30%, Maximum 60%, Most Likely 45%, PERT Estimate 45%
- By the start of the Democrat convention: Minimum 40%, Maximum 70%, Most Likely 55%, PERT Estimate 55%