[Reno89519]

Thank you! I haven't had time to go ask it questions yet today. But I just took a short break to do so...

I just asked ChatGPT 4o two questions using PERT, please provide estimates on Biden (1) Resigning and (2) Dropping Reelection at several upcoming dates.

Results:

For Biden Resigning:

• By July 4th: Minimum 10%, Maximum 30%, Most Likely 20%, PERT Estimate 20%
• By July 7th: Minimum 15%, Maximum 35%, Most Likely 25%, PERT Estimate 25%
• By the start of the Republican convention: Minimum 25%, Maximum 55%, Most Likely 40%, PERT Estimate 40%
• By the start of the Democrat convention: Minimum 35%, Maximum 65%, Most Likely 50%, PERT Estimate 50%

For Biden Abandoning Reelection:

• By July 4th: Minimum 15%, Maximum 35%, Most Likely 25%, PERT Estimate 25%
• By July 7th: Minimum 20%, Maximum 45%, Most Likely 30%, PERT Estimate ≈ 30.83%
• By the start of the Republican convention: Minimum 30%, Maximum 60%, Most Likely 45%, PERT Estimate 45%
• By the start of the Democrat convention: Minimum 40%, Maximum 70%, Most Likely 55%, PERT Estimate 55%

[dware]

I’ve been asking the same question since the debate. The morning after, it was 50/50. By that afternoon, it was 60/40 in favor of Biden being replaced. This morning, it was 45/55 in favor of Biden remaining. I find the addition of “by certain dates” interesting.