Harsh Reality for Record Number of Computer Science Grads: Software Employment Has Peaked

The Average Joe ^ | 06/27/2024 | Noah Weidner

[SeekAndFind]

Tech companies and startups overhired, overspent, and overpromised — so what they’re doing now that the money isn’t coming as easily should be no surprise. Since 2022, the industry has laid off over 528K workers, echoing the downturns of the Dotcom Bubble and the Great Recession. Even with an improving economy and record stock valuations, jobs aren’t returning. This time, things might really be different.

Peak software: ADP reports that the US employs fewer software developers than pre-pandemic — with a 17% drop since 2018. Job opportunities in traditionally stable tech fields are also drying up as software companies’ growth slows (and companies rethink the economics of their businesses)

• In the last 18 months, job growth for software publishers, including software developers, has stalled — with a 30% year-over-year decline in full-time job postings by tech firms, according to student job site Handshake.
• California, the hub of America’s tech scene, now hosts fewer tech jobs than before the pandemic, says data journalist Joey Politano — erasing a surge that added hundreds of thousands of roles.

End of Days?

Computer and tech-oriented programs are one of the only degrees that have seen an increase in enrollment in recent years — no surprise, considering STEM degrees rank among the highest-paid college majors. However, the sluggish job market for tech employees raises concerns about graduates finding quality positions.

• From 2011-2021, computer science graduates from top research universities increased 12x, with a 40% rise in computer and information science majors over the past five years (WSJ).
• CompTIA’s Tim Herbert says that “job seekers need to reset their expectations,” including compensation and employer preferences, to find jobs in the industry.

Forward-looking: While the BLS predicts double-digit growth in computer and IT jobs over the next few years, billionaire Mark Cuban warned long ago that AI could reduce demand for tech professionals over the long run. Pace Capital’s Chris Paik took it a step further in his new essay “The End of Software” — saying that “majoring in computer science today will be like majoring in journalism in the late 90’s.” These warnings might make students rethink their degree — or reconsider college entirely.

[flamberge]

I remember 30+ years ago...[]... It was about the same time that the first teasers of codeless programming were emerging.

Ahh! Good times.

COBOL was supposed to be "codeless programming" in English, no less. "Low Code Solutions" is the snake oil being sold today, along with "AI". Some things never change except for the terminology.

It still requires very smart people to develop computer software, and there are never a lot of them available. Those people require much more intelligence than the managers and executives who control them. There is a built-in organizational problem there.

One thing I recall, at a time when women were generally placed in clerical work for typical organizations, was that about 30% of the Software Engineering staff were women. These were not "diversity hires", they were simply good engineers, and absolutely needed in their jobs. I also remember that the women in clerical positions visibly disliked the women in engineering positions, and vice-versa.

That has not changed either.

[dfwgator]

Yes, CASE tools were going to remove the need for programmers.

[zeugma]

when will the H-1bs be going home?

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they'd rather have Americans unemployed and homeless than do that.

[zeugma]

Hopefully soon. I refuse to run software projects where we utilize H1B developers. Time and time again it is because of H1B developers which lead to project overruns.

One would think that companies would figure out that you get nothing but crap from India. I've been seeing it for years and years.

The company I primarily work for has outsourced almost all of it's IT to Cognizant. OMG, what a disaster. If it's something rote, yeah, they can do it. If it requires a brain and institutional knowledge, or just knowledge about interoperability, it is a crapfest just waiting to happen. I would not buy stock in the company I'm supporting.

[Albion Wilde]

It’s the Great Nerd Replacement for all the imported tech workers! At last, you’ll be able to speak to a customer service rep whose first language is English!

Of course, AI will make many of both native and alien techies redundant soon...

[jimfree]

One thing I recall, at a time when women were generally placed in clerical work for typical organizations, was that about 30% of the Software Engineering staff were women. These were not "diversity hires", they were simply good engineers, and absolutely needed in their jobs. I also remember that the women in clerical positions visibly disliked the women in engineering positions, and vice-versa.

I worked with those women. There will ALWAYS be a caste system.

[flamberge]

One would think that companies would figure out that you get nothing but crap from India. I've been seeing it for years and years.

The executives do not really care. What they want is a cheap, obedient, docile, and disposable workforce. And they get that from the Indian agencies. Technical competence is a minor factor if it is even considered.

The other factor is that the Indian agencies offer substantial bribes to executives who contract with them. This is common business practice in India and while it is unlawful in the United States, those laws can be easily evaded.