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Yes,

But... this is not the Cold War where we have a massive Western alliance with an enemy that is economically suppressed, politically isolated, culturally shunned.

The PRC is the real monster out there. They are the only ones who really pose an existential threat to us: ability and interest/motive.

Russia is a “has-been,” where the truth is that it’s us that is going after them (taking away their frontier states, setting up along their border, violating promises made or simply withdrawing from treaties when it suits us...), not the other way around as presented in our media and by our political figures. We have the upper hand in every respect and we act with impunity.

This is simply factually BS: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Lloyd-J.-Austin-III-on-Putin.mp4?_=1 All he does is throw around buzzwords (sovereign, annex, unprovoked...) and where the same argument can be made against us, in fact even more so. We have attacked more countries, sponsored more coups, invaded more countries, have 10 times the war spending, export more weapons, have more troops outside our borders, are stationed in more countries around the world, occupy more nations (The Iraqi’s have asked us to leave about 20 times or so)... This is an emotional speech that appeals to a broad base of folks, but it’s junk.

With the PRC we are far more reserved (see naval blockade as an example) since they are economically and militarily (((FAR))) more powerful. We cannot economically contain them like we did the Soviets (the world which uses them as their manufacturing base or conducts major trade with them will not play along). Their industry and manufacturing capacity does not rival, but surpasses what we have by a huge margin. Their GDP rivals what we have and PPP already surpasses ours. Their population and number of military aged males surpasses us by more than a factor of 3. They have more patents annually in the sciences and engineering than we do. They pump out more folks annually with science and engineering degrees than we do.

***Perceptions lag behind reality.***

Example: When the US waged its civil war, the Union was the worlds most powerful army, the Confederacy the worlds second most powerful, and then came the various Europeans. The reality that the US already in the 1860s was an economic and military beast more powerful than ANY European nation, was not perceived by the average French, British, Spanish or German, neither by the people nor their leadership. However, at that point already, the US was bigger industrially, bigger in economic volume, had a bigger and more capable navy, more capable army, and were among the leaders world wide in science and engineering. In fact, I would argue, that public perceptions in Europe probably didn’t truly change until 80 years later in WWII when this reality soaked in.

Likewise today, we live with an outdated perception of the PRC, which in reality is already rivaling us:

—Science and engineering degrees by nation: https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/the-global-distribution-of-stem-graduates-which-countries-lead-the-way/

—PPP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)

—GDP: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal) They are on track to pass us by 2030.

—Manufacturing: https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/manufacturing-by-country and https://www.safeguardglobal.com/resources/top-10-manufacturing-countries-in-the-world-2023/

—True military spending: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/China-Military-Budget-Graphic.png?x85095

—Science and engineering patents by nation: https://www.wipo.int/en/ipfactsandfigures/patents and https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/countries-new-patents/

***The point is not to criticize or minimize us, but to realize that this impacts the way forward. Do we really want a path of confrontation with someone that is an equal and by all accounts will be economically and militarily superior in a short time?

Like the Germans which practice what is called “Realpolitik,” we today find ourselves in a similar situation: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Realpolitik. Regards PRC, our values are at odds with what is the most pragmatic course of action. This duality is in fact almost incomprehensible, since PRC is a single party communist regime (antithesis of democracy) with one of the worst human rights records imaginable, which does not care much about other nations sovereignty (Taiwan, Tibet, Myanmar)... So on the one hand we use these ideas of human rights, democracy and sovereignty to justify our military interventionism around the world (at our convenience), but on the other hand are in bed with one of the worst culprits regards these values on this planet, PRC.

Furthermore, it is us that largely is to blame for this. We were the first ones and the biggest guys knocking on PRCs door looking for cheap labor, tax and environmental regulatory avoidance 40+ years ago. We were the ones pushing for their WTO membership. We were the ones that were quick to export our manufacturing there, bringing with it management techniques, industrial equipment, investing in infrastructure, giving them the key to our IP (example Cisco which essentially gave the Chinese all their IP and today is getting beat by firms like Huawei on the international stage). Stalin was right: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/joseph_stalin_155812

***However, if the goal is to delay or stop PRC from taking over Taiwan, we need to wage an intel war, now. China is already present in Taiwan, they have some significant advantages, and if we don’t go full force soon, Taiwan will simply slip away without a shot fired.