Ukraine ping
It won’t happen for years yet, because China’s not ready. If Russia hadn’t gotten bogged down in Ukraine, Xi might already have moved. Ukraine’s equipment inventory is sparse compared to Taiwan’s. It is being resupplied with a trickle of weaponry, mostly outdated equipment retrieved before it was to be scrapped. The invasion and annexation of Ukraine should have been completed within weeks if not months. The Russians were crossing a land border into a country that was, in the areas attacked, flat as a pancake. And yet Russia remains stalemated 2+ years into the war.
Taiwan not only has more up to date weapons in quantity, it is also a traditional US ally. Up until 1979, when Carter abrogated the treaty, it was a treaty ally with an American air base on the island, a fact reflected on the big screen twice in both Top Gun and the reboot, through the ROC patch on Maverick’s flight jacket. Any invasion involving a water crossing - especially a 100 mile crossing - is a risky one. Add to that the fact that the US has four treaty and numerous non-treaty allies in the vicinity chockful of supplies and with reasons of their own to fear the end of American protection if they balk when called upon over Taiwan’s defense, and the Chinese gamble becomes way more risky than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Like all rulers, Xi is prestige-loving. Like Deng (of “Hide your strength, bide your time” fame), who stood pat on Taiwan, however, he has likely calculated, from Ukraine’s fierce resistance against Russia’s attempts to make further inroads, that any attempt against Taiwan could run into the same obstacles but worse, because of Taiwan’s advantages over Ukraine in equipment quality and quantity and geography (the 100 mile water barrier). And the wild card of direct US intervention would elevate the risk to a completely different level, since both in- and out-of-area allies would be compelled to assist the US, out of fear of the withdrawal of Pax Americana, win or lose.
A background factor is the obvious inferiority of Russian equipment, on which China’s inventory is based. In fact, much of China’s gear consists of inferior clones of Russia’s equipment. That’s a slender reed upon to base going toe-to-toe with the biggest economy and military power in the world, which is joined at the hip to allies that not only rely on its massive market and use many American products, but also rely on the US for military protection.
Nothing being certain in war, that was an excellent analysis.
I don’t thing China was ever really going to invade - it was all talk and part of a propaganda campaign. Host of reasons
Correct!
Taiwan's war fighting equipment includes:
-Patriots
-F-16Vs (F-16A upgraded to F-16C block 70)
-P-3s (Upgraded to latest version Harpoon)
-AGM-84 Harpoon
-Aim-120 AMRAAM
-Aim-9X
-FGM-148 Javelin
Taiwan's navy includes:
-Destroyers (4)
-Frigates (22)
-Corvettes (3)
-Patrol Vessels and Missile Ships (37)
-Mine warfare (14)
-Amphibious ships (4)
-Submarines (4)
-Support Vessels (5)
Given the success of Ukraine's USVs I strongly believe that Taiwan is building a lot of USVs.
WRT U.S. support, the USAF could easily fly defensive counter-air (DCA) missions flying F-22s out of Kadena AB, Okinawa. These missions would help defend Taiwan's airspace against aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones.
Excellent post, also we now have between 1 or 2 hundred troops in Taiwan primarily training them, including some SF 3 miles off of China training Taiwanese SOF.