I imagine plenty of perfectly capable people whom affirmative action assisted could have made it anyway.
You can imagine all you like. You might even be right.
But you can't tell the incompetent "affirmative action" hires from the competent (or even excellent) people until the screwups start.
And that's one reason I oppose "affirmative action" in any form: It casts a justified cloud of suspicion over anyone who might have benefited from it, even is such person was able to succeed without it.