IWM (Russell 2000 - Small Cap Index ETF) Hourly: Looking a little exhausted?

Stockcharts ^ | 02/17/24 | self

[Eccl 10:2]

Note: 1) Negative divergence of price vs RSI and MACD, 2) MACD negative crossover, 3) Moving average ribbon starting to turn over

[Eccl 10:2]

Good chance of more downside short term, IMO

Please ping me if you want to be added to the list, but…

NOTE: I am not any sort of financial or investment professional, and I take no responsibility for any actions taken by you.

[Paladin2]

BiXidenomics crushing the little guy.

[1of10]

speaking of small caps ..
happy anniversary squeeze day to COSM ..
actually about week a ago.

the day that robin hood got spanked

the fight against naked shorts goes on.....

[Sequoyah101]

I suppose it is pretty well established by now that the market baked in 6 rate reductions this year while the fed was thinking more like 3 reductions. When that sinks in at the next fed notice things will take a further hit. The moderating factor of course is all that inflation has to go somewhere; at least moderate increases in profit. If it comes to light that the fed will actually do something more like a rate increase before a decrease panic will ensue or at least serious disappointment. If they choose to back bidet they may hold. Time will tell. I expect the market direction is down though.

I will do mostly what I always do; buy more S&P ETF, more dividend ETF and pare down bonds since I hate them. Not very exciting, not very aggressive, not very technical but it works for me. After I have seen so many companies borrow or sell their children to continue a dividend I think it is as good or better than a bond that gives you paltry interest and your money back instead of a comparable dividend and inflation plus growth back.

Milk the cow, grow the herd, gather the eggs and save some chicks, harvest some hens and sell the old cows before they become unproductive.

[1of10]

With smaller “tax” returns being the norm this year, I would expect some weakness in the push ... but there will still be tax returns ... so lottery tickets and small caps will still be in demand.

I actually had a guy tell me he hoped “ticker symbol” would hurry and go up .. he had to pay his rent on Friday.

I “suggested” he may want to pull his money off the table and pay what he could.

It breaks my heart to see some of these young folks trading with student loans, rent, tax returns ... money they need for real things in life.
But enough of them make enough to keep the hope alive.

In days gone buy, you had to show that you had the stability to handle a loss.
Before I sold my first option I had to submit financials and a letter of intent .
But hey ... gotta keep the new money coming in ...right?

[Eccl 10:2]

“It breaks my heart to see some of these young folks trading with student loans, rent, tax returns ... money they need for real things in life.”

$$$$$$$$$$$

True. So many young investors have never seen a bear market before.

Gen Z investor: “Why is my broker texting me about a ‘margin call’?? What is that???”

[Eccl 10:2]

“I suppose it is pretty well established by now that the market baked in 6 rate reductions this year while the fed was thinking more like 3 reductions.”

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

And then there’s this:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-meaningful-chance-feds-next-041452480.html

“There’s a ‘meaningful’ chance the Fed’s next move is a rate hike, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says”

Especially with recent upside surprises in the inflation indexes...

[cgbg]

Yup—there are two kinds of people in the market...

Those who were in the market through the 2008-2009 crash and those who were not.

It is usually easy to tell who they are.

Lol.

[1of10]

“sell their children “

I just love that one .

I think you seem to have a very solid over view of the whole thing and a very workable approach to handling the market.
I don't think you started yesterday ...

I hate bonds also ... if I see a good spike in yields
I will probably dump everything in.
But I'm talking 1981 .... I'm getting to old to ride the train...... but I'm actually hooked on the adrenaline, I don't know where I could get the rush.
It's better than a bass boat.

[1of10]

“two kinds of people”

Better make that three ...
some of us old guys still remember

Black Monday: Oct. 19, 1987

I have wall street journal around here some place with the graph and headline.

good times......

[JesusIsLord]

will do mostly what I always do; buy more S&P ETF, more dividend ETF and pare down bonds.

12mos. CDs are paying 5.4%. Been through severe recessions. At my age I'm content and sleep easy with 60% S&P 500 and some defensive ETFs - and 40% U.S. Bonds/CDs.

[1of10]

I don’t know if you saw this ,,,

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4218280/posts

a little ditty about Powel and july cut ...

but then again here is a Rate hike one ...
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4218259/posts

Looks like the plan may be to dribble the rate like a basketball

just thought I would throw those your way

[Eccl 10:2]

Yes, very interesting. Nothing could move the market more than a surprise rate hike.

I think this rally has been Fed fed.

[1of10]

“surprise rate hike”

I don't peg powel as the “surprise” kinda guy , so far he's been clear every step BUT ... how bout an under the table campaign to get everyone looking for a raise, holding a down pressure on the market while watching rates tick up, dax tick up ....getting that foot peddle back ... then
stand pat ....
market relief ...
hit the gas and go again...

” this rally has been Fed fed.”
So true ... they caught it at about 12000 and pushed ...then 14000, 16000 and here we are just off 18000. Ya its getting tighter .
I see 17500 as the 1st bounce but that wouldn't leave them much time , just a few days or so.... 17000 they run the risk of loosing control. so....
I think I have about 24 or 25 more days for my call of 20000 ndx
I think they may sew it sideways for a bit, I'll be looking for that pivot line (I think 17500).... always a lot of track for the Q train when it's sewing. I might swing a short q for a while here (default sqqq)I am always more comfortable swinging short, but make more long .... the one thing I THINK I know for sure is this thing is going to deflate sooner or later .... and I'd rather be short in a fall then long in a run(preservation of capitol and all, you know.)
hmmmmm ?
so what am I looking at over all?
asset inflation
dax
10yr
election yr
world conflict

so what do I see?
sew it side ways...
not as long as last time ... build a little pressure ..
heading for ndx 20000
close on friday ...? 17500
how's that for crawling out on the tip of the limb?

powel messed up on the 1st 1/4pt raise ...should have done 1/5 ... but Christmass don't cha know ..

I watch for swans an WAMs(wild @$$ moves)
I never shoot at bulls eyes (always average in/out a position)
I don't hunt unicorns(those big red or green tails on the charts)
and this is just my WAG (wild @$$ guess)notice I said “I think” a lot of times
for entertainment only .. not financial advise ....

[Eccl 10:2]

So far tonight, futures getting clipped again.

[1of10]

nvidia (NVDA) earnings come out tomorrow.

.... I don't know what time .. but I would look for WAMs

dax finally found that 104.1 then broke that 104
but the 10yr is still sticky at 4.28
hmmmmm some things gotta move.

Is every body gonna jump in the pool this am ?

Or run for the showers?

hmmmm I call first unicorn green... hey ... 50/50 ..chance right?

[1of10]

boy they hit the gas
dax down
10yr down

green unicorn

... but they just aren't getting what they are paying for ..
the move tells me they are committed .. let's see if we get that 17500 bounce

[Eccl 10:2]

NVDA earnings tomorrow. Mr. Market may be saying something about that now.

WMT, HD, HSBC earnings today.

QQQ getting close to near-term support (425-ish). If it breaks under that, then 417-418 could be the next stop.

Small caps getting hit, too.

NVDA earnings/guidance Wednesday is key.

[Eccl 10:2]

NVDA earnings announced Feb 21 after the bell