[absalom01]

That Nikki Haley is above statistical noise is worrisome.

Haley, whether through strategy or fate has become the face of the anti-trump faction of the Republican party. Her problem is that group is at best a relatively small cabal of never-trump grifting Lincoln project hangers-on, a sad-sack collection of increasingly desperate donor-class irrelevancies, and a handful of suburban wine moms who still don't like Trump's mean tweets from four years ago.

So about 10-20% of primary voters, max. Her path to the nomination is beyond narrow, IMHO.

The guy to watch is Vivek. He's been putting in the work in Iowa, has been drawing large and enthusiastic crowds, and for the past couple of weeks, has been scooping up popular support on all sides. If he's able to pull off a surprise 3rd place showing, things will suddenly get very interesting.

[Alberta's Child]

It’s worth noting that Iowa is generally not a bellweather in GOP primary politics. I think GWB (2000) was the last candidate to win the GOP nomination after winning Iowa in the primary season.

Since then, GOP races have seen Iowa victories by marginal players like Mike Huckabee (2008), Rick Santorum (2012) and Ted Cruz (2016).

[usafa92]

Vivek is a clown. He serves absolutely no purpose in this race and has no path to anything other than an early exit.