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Can Trump Really Win in 2024?
The American Spectator ^ | December 17, 2023 | David Catron

Posted on 12/18/2023 10:01:09 AM PST by freddy005

It has long been obvious that the Democrats badly want Donald Trump to be the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. This may seem counterintuitive in light of a recent spate of polls showing the former president leading Joe Biden, but this is primarily an artifact of the latter’s weakness. The most reliable polls show Trump bumping up against a ceiling of about 47 percent of the popular vote, which is consistent with his performance in the last two elections. Moreover, in order to win in the Electoral College, he must recapture several swing states Biden narrowly won in 2020 — and that will be more difficult in 2024 than it was in 2016 due to the metastasis of mail-in voting.

The RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading Biden in general election polls by 3.5 percent. It’s not enough. In 2020, Biden was able to avoid a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College by a mere 42,918 votes in three states (10,457 in Arizona, 11,779 in Georgia and 20,682 in Wisconsin). Trump won these states in 2016 and is now outpolling Biden in all of them. In a new Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll, for example, “President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and — for the first time since tracking began in October — Michigan.” This sounds bad for Biden, but few of these states have viable systems for ensuring the security of mail-in ballots. A new poll conducted for the Heartland Institute by Rasmussen Reports illustrates why this matters:

(Excerpt) Read more at 1ft.io ...


TOPICS: Conspiracy; History; Local News; Society
KEYWORDS: 2024election; democrats; republicans; trump
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To: freddy005

Trump won TWICE. He’ll win a third time. Period .


21 posted on 12/18/2023 10:34:14 AM PST by TalBlack (I We have a Christian duty and a patriotic duty. God help us.)
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To: freddy005

It’s now gotten to the point where fraud by the Democrats is now taken into consideration when projections are made. That’s disgusting. Something needs to be done about these mail-in ballots and the rampant fraud that comes along with them. The elections are becoming a joke.


22 posted on 12/18/2023 10:34:54 AM PST by ProudDeplorable (Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty. ~ Ronald Reagan)
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To: freddy005

“The most reliable polls show Trump bumping up against a ceiling of about 47 percent of the popular vote”

The real numbers - privately in the voting booth- were likely 80/20 for the 2020 and are now close to 90/10 maintaining a reasonable trajectory from the 2016

The question is the cheating

So this article is a waste


23 posted on 12/18/2023 10:36:12 AM PST by stanne
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To: freddy005

In a genuine fair election. Yes.

He’d kill them.


24 posted on 12/18/2023 10:36:43 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon.” Amen. Come, Lord Jesus.)
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To: freddy005

47% is a laughable joke


25 posted on 12/18/2023 10:37:16 AM PST by stanne
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To: oil_dude
Yes, a good chance someone else will head the ticket for the Democrats in 2024. The vote fraud machine can probably win it for Biden, but the Democrats don't want Kamala to become President a year or two later.

If Trump picks Nikki as his running mate, the Democrats may carry several Southern states they usually lose.

26 posted on 12/18/2023 10:38:33 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: freddy005
Imagine all the time, money and energy being spent on these primaries and instead they (R) should have put every resource to generate and harvest ballots (even from the grave) just like the Democrats!

Spot on and exactly right. Without Republican efforts to at least compete in the ballot-harveting arena, we will lose in 2024. We do not need to harvest more ballots than the Democrats, but we do need to compete. Not engaging at all and getting zero harvested ballots means Biden and Kamala Harris will be in the Oval Office until 2028.

That's the reality - all of the polls showing Biden losing in polls to Trump in swing states mean nothing. This is why Ronna McDaniel's chairmanship of the RNC is such an unmitigated disaster - she either does not care enough to put together any ballot harvesting mechanisms or she is too clueless to understand the issue.
27 posted on 12/18/2023 10:41:11 AM PST by AnotherUnixGeek
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To: Verginius Rufus

“ If Trump picks Nikki as his running mate, the Democrats may carry several Southern states they usually lose.”

The Bush era is over. No on the gop contenders. Stand back when dt gets back in. It will be very different

No more keep your enemies close appointments.


28 posted on 12/18/2023 10:42:18 AM PST by stanne
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To: freddy005

Sadly, I think the question isn’t whether he can win, but whether he will be allowed to take office when he does win. I think there are a lot of highly placed people who would rather burn down the whole country than let Trump be President again.


29 posted on 12/18/2023 10:45:33 AM PST by Flatus I. Maximus (You can vote your way into Socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.)
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To: stanne
I'd say there are a lot more than 20% of the people who are diehard Democrats and will never vote for any Republican.

Caught a bit of Congressman Dean Phillips on C-SPAN this weekend. He is running for President as a Democrat (he represents the third district of Minnesota). He comes across as reasonable and intelligent (especially compared to Biden or Harris). But then some woman started talking to him about "reproductive freedom" (she looked too old to worry about getting pregnant herself) and he showed his pro-abortion fanaticism, lamenting that the Supreme Court had left it to the states and that the Democrats wasted a chance to pass a national law supporting abortion when they had both houses of Congress.

30 posted on 12/18/2023 10:47:00 AM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: 1Old Pro

They will be ...

... with a lot of fraudulent votes thrown in ...


31 posted on 12/18/2023 10:47:41 AM PST by x
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To: freddy005

The House has the power to shut down the government until the mail in ballot fraud is addressed. It could also refuse to fund the USPS. So far, nothing has been done which means the GOPe doesn’t care about losing elections to fraud.


32 posted on 12/18/2023 10:47:44 AM PST by Dr. Franklin ("A republic, if you can keep it." )
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To: Bishop_Malachi
It’s not who (or how many) votes that matters. It’s who counts the votes that matt

People might get less patient when they aren't allowed to see the ballots counted than they were in 2020. Historic events in Athens, TN come to mind.
33 posted on 12/18/2023 10:49:10 AM PST by Dr. Franklin ("A republic, if you can keep it." )
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To: Leaning Right
"We’ve got to give it a go anyway. There is no other option."

I agree with you completely. I'm just having a hard time being optimistic, about much of anything these days. And so I will cast my (utterly meaningless) ballot next November. My vote is even more meaningless than most, even if it does actually get counted, because I am in NJ.

34 posted on 12/18/2023 10:50:16 AM PST by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell>)
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To: Sicon

It’s depressing to see how many of us came to the same conclusion. Win? Yes. Be allowed to take office? Highly unlikely.


35 posted on 12/18/2023 10:51:23 AM PST by Flatus I. Maximus (You can vote your way into Socialism, but you have to shoot your way out of it.)
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To: freddy005

No, Trump will never be in the WH again. Sorry folks, dose of realism.


36 posted on 12/18/2023 10:52:01 AM PST by BigFreakinToad (Remember the Biden Kitchen Fire of 2004)
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To: freddy005

Yes, next question.


37 posted on 12/18/2023 10:56:50 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: ProudDeplorable
The elections are becoming a joke.

Fixed it.

38 posted on 12/18/2023 10:58:47 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: BigFreakinToad

If Trump can’t win then no one can win.


39 posted on 12/18/2023 11:00:36 AM PST by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn...)
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To: Bishop_Malachi

It’s not who (or how many) votes that matters. It’s who counts the votes that matter.

And how many times they recount the same ballots.


40 posted on 12/18/2023 11:02:49 AM PST by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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