You are correct.
They were desperate to keep the Speakership (and thus, power) in the 50th conservative percentile (McCarthy, McHenry, Scalise) and moving to the 90th percentile with Jordan was a bridge too far.
They tried moving into the 60th percentile with Emmer, but that was a no-go.
So we got a Speaker in the 70th percentile. The House electorate just HAD to move in a more conservative direction because the general electorate had moved in that direction.
Most of the old moderate-liberal Boehner boys had retired in 2018 to help the Democrats. And when the House became Republican again, it was a far more conservative body. The old guard were able to retain power but for only nine months. Now we’re in a new era with a far more conservative speaker.
Great analysis it was no coincidence then.