If slavery never existed would there have been a Confederacy and Civil War? No.
I disagree. Do a thought experiment. Suppose for sake of argument, that the slaves had been freed and were instead sharecroppers or wage laborers as they were after the war. They still had their labor to sell and there was a market for labor to produce cash crops so some arrangement would have been worked out - as indeed it was after the war.
So now that the slaves are all free in our thought experiment, do the Southern states not still need low tariffs? Do the Northern states not still want high protective tariffs to fatten their profit margins as they get to raise prices and increase sales? Do the Northern states no longer use their majority in Congress to vote themselves the lion's share of the federal budget? Of course they do. Just as Southerners still bitterly resent it.
All the key motivating factors are still there for the Southern states to secede and for the Northern states to not want to see their cash cows depart.
This is a fun game! Let me play!
If George Washington never existed, would there have been a United States?
If Virginia and the other Southern states had not joined the War for Independence, would there have been a United States?
If Southern states hadn't been paying 72% of the total taxation in the nation, would they have left?
Would *YOU* like to pay 72% of the taxes while 5 of your Neighbors together (relative population difference between North and South) Paid 28%?
Your argument is asinine and ignores the fact the North wanted that slave money too, and that slave money is *WHY* they wouldn't let the South go.