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GOP Congressional Lead Now at 7 Points
Rasmussen ^ | 10/14/2022 | Rasmussen

Posted on 10/15/2022 9:23:43 AM PDT by Signalman

The 2022 midterm elections are now 25 days away, and Republicans have a seven-point lead in their bid to recapture control of Congress.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 41% would vote for the Democrat. Just four percent (4%) would vote for some other candidate, but another seven percent (7%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP lead is up three points from last week, when they led 47% to 43%. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July, when they led by as much as 10 points.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In October 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats and Republicans were tied at 45% each in the generic ballot question. The margin was still a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-13, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The expanded Republican lead is due mainly to a 16-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 82% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 46% would vote Republican and 30% would vote Democrat, while nine percent (9%) would vote for some other candidate and 15% are undecided.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 27% of black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of black voters, 38% of whites and 42% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has widened in the latest findings, with men (53%) now 10 points more likely than women voters (43%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was two points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 12-point margin, 47% to 35%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 52% to 39%, and the GOP lead is 18 points – 56% to 38% – among voters 65 and older.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Democrats lead by 12 points, 51% to 39%, among voters with annual incomes over $200,000, while Republicans have a 12-point advantage among those earning between $30,000 and $50,000 a year.

Republicans now hold strong majorities among both government employees and retirees, while private sector workers are almost evenly divided, with 44% for Democrats and 43% for Republicans.

Despite controversies over other issues, the economy remains the top concern for voters just weeks ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.

A year after school controversies helped Republicans win big in Virginia, education remains an important issue for most voters.


TOPICS: Miscellaneous
KEYWORDS: genericpoll; rasmussen
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To: Signalman

27% of the black vote. I suspect most of that support comes from black males not living in big cities.

I would have liked to have seen the break down among union members-blue collar and skilled tradespeople versus government workers.


21 posted on 10/15/2022 10:08:26 AM PDT by Maine Mariner
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To: Czech_Occidentalist

yes I agree, that doesn’t seem right


22 posted on 10/15/2022 10:13:52 AM PDT by Jeff Vader ( )
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To: Signalman

It is now Officiakl:

Republicans are the party of the working class, while democrats are the party of the Rich Elite.

As they sang in the 1930’s, “Happy Days Are Here Again!”


23 posted on 10/15/2022 10:28:21 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Rush, we're missing your take on all of this!)
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To: Dan in Wichita
Yup! Every election thread:


Voter fraud, voter fraud! democrats won't let us win!!!

We're doomed I tellya!!! Eeyore!

24 posted on 10/15/2022 10:33:19 AM PDT by Alas Babylon! (Rush, we're missing your take on all of this!)
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To: Czech_Occidentalist

They have first hand knowledge of how screwed up things really are in government


25 posted on 10/15/2022 10:33:20 AM PDT by cableguymn
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

To: Signalman

Republicans will take The House but fail to retake The Senate. Trump Senate candidates will be cheated. We will see unexplainably lopsided results again, where republicans will historic victories in blue districts but somehow Trump friendly candidates will lose in purple and purple red areas.


27 posted on 10/15/2022 10:49:47 AM PDT by McCarthysGhost (q)
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To: SaxxonWoods

Great! Things are looking up for Brandon! Only twice as much as under Trump!

Go FJB!


28 posted on 10/15/2022 11:15:49 AM PDT by Regulator (It's fraud, Jim)
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To: Signalman

And Schumer and Pelosi laugh and say “Let the cheating begin.”


29 posted on 10/15/2022 11:21:31 AM PDT by antidemoncrat
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To: Signalman

The generic poll is nice but the big news is in CNN finding Republicans 10 points more enthusiastic to vote than the rodents are which is of course the lowest number CNN could push poll it to. In reality it is more likely 15 points. Either way it is very big and beyond the cheat point.
Cheating takes money and the rodents don have much money as per Politico.


30 posted on 10/15/2022 11:31:16 AM PDT by jmaroneps37 (Freedom is never free. It must be won rewon and jealously guarded.)
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To: Alas Babylon!; Dan in Wichita

Amen, brothers. Election fraud is obviously real. But it has real limits as well, and it least in some states is harder to accomplish. It’s important, but the relentless flogging of it on this forum is so tiresome


31 posted on 10/15/2022 12:23:57 PM PDT by j.havenfarm (21 years on Free Republic, 12/10/21! More than 5000 replies and still not shutting up!)
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To: Michael.SF.

One issue is the early voting. In a fair number of these elections large numbers voted while things were trending Democrat.


32 posted on 10/18/2022 4:39:11 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: clearcarbon

It’s probable that there are a lot of Republicans, and especially Trump supporters which can’t be contacted or won’t say.


33 posted on 10/18/2022 4:40:48 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: Maine Mariner

27% of the black vote. I suspect most of that support comes from black males not living in big cities.


That is a large portion of the ‘gender gap’. Unmarried women is a part, and that black women are firmly and almost unanimously in the Democrat camp. The growth of Republican support among black people is almost entirely amongst males.


34 posted on 10/18/2022 4:44:01 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: lepton

Yes you are correct. I believe 90% of black females vote almost straight ticket Demorat.


35 posted on 10/18/2022 4:48:14 PM PDT by Maine Mariner
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