Iran Update, January 16, 2024
A low-level Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commander told Israeli intelligence he received military training in Iran before Hamas’ October 7 attack. The platoon-level commander from Sheikh Radwan was detained by Israeli forces on December 20, 2023, and made the statements during recorded questioning by Israeli intelligence service Shin Bet.[28] The PIJ fighter stated that he and 15 to 20 other PIJ members from the Gaza Strip, Syria, and Lebanon were sent to a 15-day sniper training course at an Iranian base.[29] He alleged that other PIJ fighters received artillery and officer command courses at unspecified military bases in Iran. The US State Department and Treasury Department said in November 2023 that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps enables PIJ’s operations through the transfer of funds and the provision of both weapons and operational training.[30]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-16-2024
Once Iran has acquired the nuclear weapon, Iran can simply use the situation it has created itself in the region as a justification while painting itself as a victim who was in need of a deterrent.
In my assessment, there are only a few months left before Iran will be able to acquire a functional nuclear weapon. If Iran misses this window of opportunity, chances are it won't get another one. Once the U.S. election are over, the new administration will be likely entirely focused on Iran.
The international community must do everything to foil this plan of Iran. Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. A nuclear Iran will be a nightmare not just for the region but for the entire world and it will start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Everything must be done to prevent Iran from acquiring nukes.
Syrian, Western, and Iranian media provided further details on January 17 about the January 15 Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps missile strike on Syria. UK-based Syrian opposition media Syrian Observatory for Human Rights and a Syrian humanitarian organization reported that the Iranian missile strike targeted an empty, non-operational medical clinic in Idlib.[64] Bloomberg reported that the range at which the IRGC fired the Kheibar Shekan missile on January 15 is nearly the range required for Iran to target Tel Aviv, Israel.[65] Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS)-controlled media highlighted that the missile's name references a Jewish fortress captured by Muslim armies during the Battle of Kheibar in 628. AFGS-controlled media also noted that the purpose of the missile is to target Israel.[66] Israeli media and Iranian officials and media said on January 16 that the IRGC ballistic missile attacks in Idlib, Syria were the furthest that Iran has ever fired a missile.[67]
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian discussed the IRGC’s January 15-16 strikes in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria with US media during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The IRGC struck actors in Iraq, Pakistan, and Syria that Iranian leaders accused of trying to destabilize and undermine the regime.[72] Abdollahian described the strikes to CNBC on January 16 as acts of “legitimate self-defense” aimed at combatting terrorism.[73] Abdollahian separately told CNN on January 17 that Iran respects Iraq and Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, but it will not allow terrorists in Pakistan or “Israeli currents” in Iraqi Kurdistan to threaten Iran's national security.[74] Abdollahian emphasized that the IRGC drone and missile strikes in Erbil targeted “Mossad agents,” not Iraq. Abdollahian also claimed that the IRGC acted within the framework of the March 2023 security agreement between Tehran and Baghdad. The March 2023 agreement requires Iraqi authorities to disarm and relocate members of Iranian Kurdish opposition groups away from Iran's borders.[75] Abdollahian may have made this statement in response to Iraqi Defense Minister Thabet al Abbasi’s warning on January 17 that the Iraqi federal government may suspend the agreement with Iran in response to the IRGC’s strikes in Erbil.[76] Abbasi is a member of a Sunni coalition named the National Resolution Alliance (Al Hasm Alliance).[77]
Abdollahian also claimed that Pakistan is Iran's “friend and brother” and that the IRGC strikes in Pakistan did not kill any civilians. Abdollahian likely made this last statement in response to the Pakistani government's claim that the airstrikes killed two children.[78] Abdollahian similarly emphasized that the IRGC strikes only targeted members of the Baloch Salafi-Jihadi group Jaish al Adl in a phone call with Pakistani Foreign Affairs Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani on January 17.[79] The Iranian readout of this phone call emphasized Iran's respect for Pakistan's territorial integrity and sovereignty, while the Pakistani readout focused on Jilani’s condemnation of the strikes as “an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations between Pakistan and Iran.”[80]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-17-2024