Iran has created a vast network of proxies in the region that has contributed significantly to its soft power and hard power. Following Oct. 7th, Iran has created a situation of mass distraction in the region. So far it has managed to keep U.S. and Israel distracted through its proxies. While the spotlight is on Iran's proxies and world powers are trying to figure out how to tackle them, I suspect Iran will try to race towards acquiring nukes. Iran understands it has a small window of opportunity until the U.S. election. The U.S. will try to do everything it can to avoid opening a major military front against Iran before the election and Iran is counting on that.
Once Iran has acquired the nuclear weapon, Iran can simply use the situation it has created itself in the region as a justification while painting itself as a victim who was in need of a deterrent.
In my assessment, there are only a few months left before Iran will be able to acquire a functional nuclear weapon. If Iran misses this window of opportunity, chances are it won't get another one. Once the U.S. election are over, the new administration will be likely entirely focused on Iran.
The international community must do everything to foil this plan of Iran. Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons. A nuclear Iran will be a nightmare not just for the region but for the entire world and it will start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Everything must be done to prevent Iran from acquiring nukes.
https://twitter.com/Natsecjeff/status/1747575733038583842
Russia and Iran are preparing to sign a Grand Interstate Treaty to further develop Russian-Iranian military-technological cooperation.[47]
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Defense and Iranian Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani reportedly discussed bilateral military and military-technical cooperation during a phone call on January 15, and both sides are reportedly preparing to sign the Grand Interstate Treaty within an unspecified timeframe.[48] Both sides emphasized their commitment to the fundamental principles of Russian-Iranian relations – including unconditional respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity – which will be confirmed in the upcoming Grand Interstate Treaty. Shoigu noted that Moscow and Tehran are consistently increasing their cooperation in the interest of building a “truly equal multipolar world.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov similarly spoke with Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian about the progress of the new interstate agreement and a number of bilateral cooperation topics involving trade, economy, transport, and logistics during a phone call on January 15.[49] Lavrov and Abdollahian reiterated that Russia and Iran are preparing to codify different fundamental principles of Russian-Iranian relations in the new Grand Interstate Treaty.[50] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Deputy Chief Major General Vadym Skibitskyi stated in an interview published on January 15 that Iran wants to increase military-technical cooperation with Russia and hopes to acquire Su-34 fighter aircraft, training aircraft, and radar stations.[51]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-15-2024