Iran Update, January 12, 2024
The Houthis will likely continue to attempt attacks against international shipping in the Red Sea because the January 11 airstrikes do not sufficiently threaten the Houthis’ position within Yemen. The Houthis said after the attacks that they would retaliate against the United States and the United Kingdom.[5] The Houthis aim to control all of Yemen. Houthi spokespersons said on January 12 that the airstrikes will not deter Houthi forces from supporting Palestine.[6] The Houthis launched an anti-ship ballistic missile targeting a Russian tanker south of Yemen on January 12.[7] The Houthis believe that attacks on international shipping help the group solidify its control in Yemen by demonstrating Houthi support to the Palestinian cause.[8]
The Houthis and their Iranian patrons continue to blame the United States for “escalating” in the region in response to the airstrikes.[9] Houthi spokespersons said on January 11 that the Houthis do not threaten international shipping in the Red Sea.[10] A former IRGC commander also warned that the strikes could escalate tensions in the region.[11] The United States and the United Kingdom did not escalate against the Houthis. The Houthis have conducted 27 piratical and terrorist attacks targeting international shipping in the Red Sea since October 17 without a response.[12] The United States and 11 partners warned the Houthis against further attacks on international shipping on January 3.[13] The Houthis conducted their largest and most complex attack to date on January 9 targeting HMS Diamond and US naval vessels after the warning.[14] The United States and the United Kingdom repeatedly called upon the Houthi movement to cease attacks prior to the strikes, including through a UN Security Council Resolution that called upon the Houthis to cease attacks in the Red Sea on January 10.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-12-2024
A strategic course correction would begin by recognising that all of this—the threats in the international waters off Yemen, the harassment of the Allied troops in the Fertile Cresent, the war in Gaza—is Iran, and making that the return address. The Iranian regime is neither physically capable nor doctrinally prepared to wage a conventional war; the threat of such a thing is as unrealistic—and generally proffered in as bad faith—as the threat of “World War Three” if Russia is prevented from conquering Ukraine. Iran's asymmetric options are all it has, and denying the Islamic Republic the “deniability” this is supposed to bring it—inflicting the full costs on it for its misbehaviour—would have a salutary effect all around.
This change would rein-in Ansarallah in the short-term, which would be a start. If there is a solution over the longer term, it is to dislodge the IRGC from its control of the key areas of Yemen, a task now all the more difficult after the IRGC has had another half-decade to entrench itself and to politically weaken the Arab Coalition. Left alone with this fight, the Saudis have more or less given up, as they showed in their response to the strikes, and are looking for a fig-leaf to cover their surrender to Iran. Perhaps the chance is gone and the price of Western neglect will be a permanent menace to international commerce. In either event, the U.S. could at least call this menace by its right name and restore the terrorist designation against Ansarallah that Biden incomprehensibly revoked in his first weeks in office.
https://www.kyleorton.com/p/us-uk-yemen-strikes-make-iran-the-return-address
The Iranian-backed Badr Organization announced the submission of a draft law that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. This law is part of Iran's decades-old effort to expel US forces from Iraq and the region. Conquest Alliance MP Faleh al Khazali said that the law is the result of “the Americans’ continued violations of Iraqi sovereignty.”[1] The United States has not violated Iraqi sovereignty because it is conducting self-defense strikes against militias firing at US servicemembers. Khazali announced a draft law on January 13 that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq.[2] Conquest Alliance is the Badr Organization's political arm in parliament. Eighty-eight parliamentarians signed the draft law, which is 77 signatures short of a majority. The law calls for the removal of US forces and the formation of a committee led by the prime minister to implement the law. The committee will present a report to the Iraqi parliament that will describe the “requirements for ending” the US force presence in Iraq.
This law aims to increase pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani and to force him to expel US forces from Iraq. Politico reported on January 9 that senior Iraqi advisors to Sudani told the US State Department that Sudani does not seek the expulsion of US forces.[3] The draft law's inclusion of a prime minister-led committee increases the pressure on Sudani by forcing him to author a report detailing how Iraq would end the US presence in Iraq. The inclusion of this requirement is a key difference between the draft law and the 2020 nonbinding resolution that called for the expulsion of US forces.[4] Iranian-backed Iraqi proxy militias like the Badr Organization have been increasing political and military pressure on the United States in Iraq since late November 2023 as part of their effort to expel US forces from Iraq.[5]
The expulsion of US forces from Iraq will likely allow ISIS to resurge in Syria and then threaten Iraq within 12 to 24 months. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would benefit ISIS by preventing US support to the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF). The ISF still faces deficiencies in intelligence, logistics, and fire support.[6] The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would also require the US to end operations in Syria because US forces in Syria rely on Iraqi bases for their logistics and other support. CTP-ISW continues to assess that ISIS would likely resurge within 12-24 months in Syria without a US force presence and then threaten Iraq.[7]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-january-13-2024