Iran Update, December 27, 2023
Central Bank of Iran Governor Mohammad Farzin traveled to Moscow on December 26 to discuss banking and finalize trade agreements with Russian officials.[98] IRIB reported that the bank managers of the Bank of Russia and the National Bank of Iran established a credit line worth 6.5 billion rubles (approx. $70 million) to allow Iran to import basic goods from Russia. Iran and Russia finalized an agreement to conduct trade using their national currencies —rather than the US dollar— on December 27.[99] Iranian media said that this agreement allows previously established non-SWIFT messaging systems and bilateral brokerage relations to now be used by banks and economic operators.[100]
full report:_ https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-27-2023
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. These militias have used legal, military, and political pressure in recent weeks to expel US forces, as CTP-ISW previously assessed. This pressure, particularly the Iranian-backed attacks on US forces, creates an escalation cycle that triggers US self-defense strikes to protect US servicemembers. The Iranian-backed factions and militias then misrepresent these self-defense strikes as violations of Iraqi sovereignty, which generates domestic pressure on Sudani to remove US forces. This pressure appears to have succeeded at least partly in that Sudani repeated Iranian-backed militia talking points about the United States. Sudani said that that the self-defense strikes are violations of Iraqi sovereignty and were inconsistent with the advisory role of the International Coalition.[1] These claims ignore the fact that the US forces have a right to self-defense and that the Iranian use of client militias and proxies in Iraq to attack US forces in line with Tehran’s regional agenda is itself a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. US advisory forces are currently deployed in Iraq for counter-ISIS operations at the invitation of the Iraqi [2]government. Sudani did not provide a timeline for removing International Coalition forces or describe the mechanism by which they would be removed.[3]
An Iraqi decision to expel US forces will very likely create space for ISIS to rapidly resurge in Syria within 12 to 24 months and then threaten Iraq. The US military mission in these countries is to enable the enduring defeat of ISIS and through cooperation with local partners.[4] The US support to its counter-ISIS partners in both Iraq and Syria is instrumental to successfully defeating ISIS.[5] US forces and infrastructure in Iraq provide the logistical support that enables the presence of US forces in Syria. The expulsion of US forces from Iraq would necessitate a withdrawal from Syria, where ISIS is reconstituting itself in Syrian regime-held territory.[6] CTP-ISW continues to assess that the United States and its partner in Syria have successfully contained but not defeated ISIS and that the US withdrawal from Syria will very likely cause a rapid resurgence in Syria within 12 to 24 months.[7] A resurgent ISIS would then be able to threaten Iraq again. The Iraqi Security Forces still face significant deficiencies in logistics, intelligence, and fire support that inhibit their ability to defeat ISIS alone.[8]
full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-december-28-2023