Iran Update, June 23, 2023
The 20th round of Astana talks, which aim to end the Syria conflict, concluded in Astana, Kazakhstan on June 21 without an agreement. Iran and Syria messaged ahead of the forum that their positions are aligned for quadripartite talks, possibly signaling that Iran will back the Assad regime’s demand for Turkey’s complete withdrawal from Syria as a precondition for future Astana talks.
The Iranian rial has appreciated approximately ten percent since May 1, likely in part due to the Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy efforts. The Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy combined with ongoing nuclear talks may have generated confidence in the future of the Iranian economy, consequently increasing the value of the rial.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-23-2023
IRGC-linked Telegram channel sharing the following tweet:
“If necessary, just as we prevented the fall of Assad, we will prevent the fall of #Putin.”
https://twitter.com/CassandaneIran/status/1672577202586542082
Iran is framing the US-led international coalition in Syria as an imminent security threat to local Syrians, possibly to incite and sustain local support to expel US forces from Syria. Iran maintains the capability to attack US forces in the Middle East via its proxies but has restrained them from conducting attacks.
Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan will soon travel to Russia to increase security cooperation with Moscow. Iranian media reported on June 26 that Radan will travel to Russia on an unspecified date to observe the Russian police's methods for confronting organized crime.[7] Radan will also sign a memorandum of understanding with Russian security officials to increase Russo-Iranian cooperation in combatting terrorism and human and drug trafficking. Iranian law enforcement commanders rarely travel abroad, and Radan has not traveled abroad since becoming Law Enforcement Commander in January 2023. Former Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Hossein Ashtari only made one foreign trip to Iraq during his eight-year tenure, for example.[8] The announcement of Radan’s trip follows Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 23-24 armed rebellion against the Russian Ministry of Defense.[9] The timing of this announcement suggests that Radan is traveling to Russia to help Russian President Vladimir Putin maintain internal security. Radan previously traveled to Damascus, Syria as law enforcement deputy commander in 2011 to support Syrian security services’ crackdown against the Syrian people.[10]
Iran may seek Russian security assistance to crack down more forcefully on Iranian anti-regime activity. Radan stated on June 26 that the Law Enforcement Command (LEC) will “forcefully” confront “norm breakers,” a term Iranian security officials frequently use to describe individuals who participate in acts of anti-regime defiance, including unveiled women.[11] President Ebrahim Raisi separately stated on June 25 that the regime's efforts to “reduce social harms” have been “insufficient.”[12] The regime recently began implementing a “smart” approach for enforcing mandatory veiling in mid-April.[13] This approach uses advanced technologies, such as facial-recognizing cameras, to identify unveiled women without physically confronting them. Several Iranians recently told the BBC that these smart technologies are inaccurate, however, with several long-haired men reporting that they received hijab warning messages after traffic cameras mistook them for unveiled women.[14] The Wall Street Journal reported on March 27 that Russia is providing Iran with advanced surveillance software.[15]
The IRGC appointed two new northwest regional commanders on June 26, indicating the regime's focus on security threats in the area.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2023