Iran Update, May 2, 2023
Iranian officials and members of the clerical establishment have expressed increased concern over the safety of religious figures in recent days.
Iranian-backed Syrian militias may be setting rhetorical conditions to attack US forces in response to Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo Province.
At least 12 protests occurred in 12 cities across 12 provinces.
Israeli media reported that Saudi and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) officials are considering holding talks to improve relations, citing an unidentified European official.
Details:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-2-2023
On May 3 at approximately 6:20 a.m. local time, Panama-flagged oil tanker Niovi was seized by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) while transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The oil tanker departed Dubai and was transiting from the Arabian Gulf toward the port of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates when a dozen IRGCN fast-attack craft swarmed the vessel in the middle of the strait. The IRGCN subsequently forced the oil tanker to reverse course and head toward Iranian territorial waters off the coast of Bandar ‘Abbas, Iran.
A previous incident occurred six days ago when the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy seized Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker Advantage Sweet while it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman.
Iran’s actions are contrary to international law and disruptive to regional security and stability. Over the past two years, Iran has harassed, attacked or interfered with the navigational rights of 15 internationally flagged merchant vessels. Iran’s continued harassment of vessels and interference with navigational rights in regional waters are unwarranted, irresponsible and a present threat to maritime security and the global economy.
https://www.cusnc.navy.mil/Media/News/Display/Article/3382465/second-merchant-vessel-seized-within-a-week-by-iran/
video:
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6326669793112
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:214873
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi signed 15 cooperation agreements with Syrian President Bashar al Assad in Damascus, Syria on May 3, which could improve the Iranian economy and increase regime stability.
At least six protests occurred in five cities across five provinces on May 3.
Iranian officials and clerics continued to express concern about deepening divides between the regime and its populous.
President Ebrahim Raisi and an IRGC-affiliated media outlet discussed strengthening indoctrination efforts in Iranian schools.
Reformist-affiliated Etemad reported on May 3 that some Iranians have resorted to bartering household goods to afford chicken amid deteriorating economic conditions.
The IRGC Navy seized the Panamanian-flagged oil and Greek-managed Niovi tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on May 3, the second tanker seized by Iranian naval forces this week.
Iranian reconstruction and economic partnership in Syria may include contracts for Iran's Axis of Resistance in Syria, which would provide the groups with an alternative source of revenue to fund their military operations. The Iranian regime had to cut salaries for its proxies and militias due to the compounded effect of US sanctions and COVID-19 measures.[5] Contracts for Iranian-backed proxies and militias would provide other sources of revenue to pay fighters and purchase weapons to support Iran's military posture and influence in Syria. Iraqi proxies already have demonstrated their willingness and capability to take part in Syria's reconstruction. Several of the groups built several hundred apartment units in north-western Syria following the February 6 earthquake which proxies also used to strengthen and expand militia positions as CTP previously assessed.[6] Iranian economic and reconstruction projects would have the added benefit of retaining Iranian influence within Syria at a time when several neighboring countries are engaging in normalization efforts with Syria.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-3-2023