The IRGC Quds Force is likely reinforcing its military presence in northern Syria under the guise of providing humanitarian relief following the earthquake on February 6.
The senior IRGC Quds Force and PMF officials’ highly publicized appearance in northern Syria probably also is part of an information operation aimed at Israel and Turkey.
Prominent Sunni cleric Moulana Abdol Hamid implicitly called for revolutionary change to the Iranian regime and sought to broaden his appeal beyond Sunni Iranians on February 10.
At least five protests occurred in four cities across four provinces.
Several senior regime officials called on the Iranian population to participate in pro-regime demonstrations commemorating the anniversary of the Islamic Republic on February 11.
The Sunday Times reported on February 10 that IRGC personnel were experiencing “doubt and confusion” following the Mahsa Amini protest movement, citing inside sources.
Russian Ambassador to Tehran Alexev Dedov announced on February 10 that the National Iranian Oil Company and Russian state-owned Gazprom were engaged in consultations on developing of gas fields inside Iran.
The Ministry of Intelligence and Security and the IRGC Intelligence Organization published a joint statement announcing the arrest of perpetrators behind the drone attack on a military munitions factory near Esfahan City, Esfahan Province on January 28.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-10-2023
The IRGC Quds Force is likely coordinating a large-scale effort to consolidate its control and influence over critical transportation routes and nodes through Syria. Iran has long sought to consolidate control of these key transportation nodes to deepen its control and influence in Syria.
Iranian leaders and state-run media promoted the narrative that the regime has popular support surrounding the anniversary of the founding of the Islamic Republic.
Some Iranian officials focused on discussing economic grievances rather than publicly continuing the conversation they have had in recent days about the growing alienation of the population.
CTP recorded one protest on February 11, three protests on February 12, and ten protests on February 13.
Over 300 Iranian activists, journalists, and reformist politicians signed an open letter expressing support for Mir Hossein Mousavi and his calls for “foundational” change in Iran.
Amwaj Media—a UK-based, anti-regime site—reported on February 12 that Iranian officials have renewed internal discussions over whether to establish a parliamentary system, citing an unidentified hardline source.
President Ebrahim Raisi is conducting an official visit to China from February 13 to 16.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-february-13-2023