Iran Crisis Update, January 30, 2023
Israeli combat aircraft conducted three airstrikes against likely Iran-backed militants in eastern Syria.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei implicitly criticized the Raisi administration’s economic performance in a speech.
Some Iranian parliamentarians and important regime organs endorsed a legislative proposal that would significantly limit freedom of speech within Iran.
At least one protest occurred in one city across one province on January 29 and at least 18 protests occurred in 13 cities across 13 provinces on January 30. CTP did not record protests that met its reporting thresholds on January 28.
President Ebrahim Raisi held a telephone call with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned Ukraine’s charge d’affaires over Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mykhailo Podolyak’s comments on the January 28 Israeli drone attack in Esfahan City, Esfahan Province.
Iran and Russia established direct financial communication channels between Iranian banks and more than 800 Russian banks.
Artesh Navy Deputy Commander Admiral Hamzeh Ali Kaviani announced on January 28 that the Artesh Navy entered Latin American waters.
Law Enforcement Commander Ahmad Reza Radan appointed Gholam Reza Rezaian as Law Enforcement Command (LEC) Intelligence Chief.
Internet watchdog organizations and social media users recorded significant internet disruptions in Kurdistan, Mazandaran, and Sistan and Baluchistan Provinces.
Iranian authorities arrested Sunni cleric Moulavi Abdol Majid Mouradzahi on January 30 in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province.
Iranian authorities sealed two businesses for failing to observe laws that restrict women’s role in the public sphere.
Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member Shahriar Heidari announced that committee members would travel to Esfahan and visit the target of the January 28 Israeli drone strike.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-30-2023
Iranian officials have threatened Ukraine and unnamed regional states for allegedly cooperating with Israel in response to the reported Israeli drone strike on a military munition factory in Esfahan.
Iranian officials are securitizing their disaster response to the 5.9-magnitude earthquake that occurred in Khoy, West Azerbaijan Province.
President Ebrahim Raisi continues to misdiagnose the root problems that have driven the recent protests.
At least three protests occurred in two cities across two provinces.
Several parliamentarians criticized the Raisi administration for its handling of the economy.
The Central Bank raised the three-year maximum interest rate on bank deposits from 18 percent to 22.5 percent.
Parliamentarian Mohammad Sargazi described plans to expel Afghan nationals from Sistan and Baluchistan Province if the Afghan Taliban does not provide Iran water rights to the Helmand River.
Iranian and Iranian-backed militants in Deir ez Zour Province ordered their forces on January 31 to prepare to attack US forces at the al Omar oil field or Koniko gas fields in eastern Syria, according to local Syria outlets.[20] The Iranian and Iranian-backed commanders met at a local security office to discuss retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian convoys on January 29 and 30. Coalition forces are reportedly on high alert at the potential target locations.[21] Senior Iranian military commanders have warned in recent years that they will attack ”all centers, bases, routes, and spaces used as sources or paths for [Israeli] aggression,” holding the US accountable for potential Israeli strikes.[22] Iranian willingness to attack the US as part of its escalation cycle with Israel highlights the fact that Tehran likely considers American forces a safer target than Israeli targets, presumably because the Iranians see the risk of Israeli military escalation as being higher than the risk of American military escalation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on January 31 that Russia will include Iran in future rapprochement discussions between Syria and Turkey.[23] Moscow has mediated meetings between Syrian and Turkish officials since December 2022 and have thus far excluded Iranian representatives.[24] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held back-to-back meetings with the Syrian and Turkish foreign ministers and Syrian defense officials from January 14 to January 23, likely to reassert Iranian influence in the rapprochement discussions.[25]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-31-2023