Iranian officials have threatened Ukraine and unnamed regional states for allegedly cooperating with Israel in response to the reported Israeli drone strike on a military munition factory in Esfahan.
Iranian officials are securitizing their disaster response to the 5.9-magnitude earthquake that occurred in Khoy, West Azerbaijan Province.
President Ebrahim Raisi continues to misdiagnose the root problems that have driven the recent protests.
At least three protests occurred in two cities across two provinces.
Several parliamentarians criticized the Raisi administration for its handling of the economy.
The Central Bank raised the three-year maximum interest rate on bank deposits from 18 percent to 22.5 percent.
Parliamentarian Mohammad Sargazi described plans to expel Afghan nationals from Sistan and Baluchistan Province if the Afghan Taliban does not provide Iran water rights to the Helmand River.
Iranian and Iranian-backed militants in Deir ez Zour Province ordered their forces on January 31 to prepare to attack US forces at the al Omar oil field or Koniko gas fields in eastern Syria, according to local Syria outlets.[20] The Iranian and Iranian-backed commanders met at a local security office to discuss retaliation for Israeli strikes on Iranian convoys on January 29 and 30. Coalition forces are reportedly on high alert at the potential target locations.[21] Senior Iranian military commanders have warned in recent years that they will attack ”all centers, bases, routes, and spaces used as sources or paths for [Israeli] aggression,” holding the US accountable for potential Israeli strikes.[22] Iranian willingness to attack the US as part of its escalation cycle with Israel highlights the fact that Tehran likely considers American forces a safer target than Israeli targets, presumably because the Iranians see the risk of Israeli military escalation as being higher than the risk of American military escalation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced on January 31 that Russia will include Iran in future rapprochement discussions between Syria and Turkey.[23] Moscow has mediated meetings between Syrian and Turkish officials since December 2022 and have thus far excluded Iranian representatives.[24] Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian held back-to-back meetings with the Syrian and Turkish foreign ministers and Syrian defense officials from January 14 to January 23, likely to reassert Iranian influence in the rapprochement discussions.[25]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-january-31-2023
Iran Crisis Update, February 1, 2023
Iranian officials across the political spectrum are cohering around different lessons the regime should draw from the protest movement and how to best respond.
IRGC-affiliated and ultra-hardline individuals advocated for exerting greater control over Iranian youth and women on February 1.
At least one protest occurred in one city across one province on February 1.
Protest organizations called for individual and sustainable acts of anti-regime defiance from February 1-11.
Iranian officials close to President Ebrahim Raisi are attempting to downplay recent criticisms of the Raisi administration.
President Ebrahim Raisi ordered First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber to form a working group to implement Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s economic recommendations.
Anti-regime outlet Iran International published a report claiming that the officials working at the Iranian embassy in Baghdad are involved in an IRGC Quds Force money laundering operation.
A credible, open-source intelligence Twitter account claimed unspecified IRGC forces are preparing to conduct cross-border attacks on anti-regime Kurdish groups along the Iran-Iraqi Kurdistan border.
A possibly Iran-backed militia launched at least eight rockets at the Zilkan Turkish military base near Bashiqa, Nineveh Province, Iraq.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-crisis-update-february-1-2023