Sal Mercogliano- What’s Going on With Shipping?
17JUN2026 Sal Mercogliano dives into the growing confusion surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. While political announcements suggest a breakthrough and an immediate end to the naval blockade, the reality on the water—tracked by AIS data and maritime insurance rates—tells a different story.
In this episode, we break down:
⚓Rhetoric vs. Reality: Why the recent political announcements may be jeopardizing the lives of merchant mariners.
⚓The AIS Data: A deep dive into current traffic patterns, showing who is “running dark” and why the Omani channel is the preferred route for those avoiding the Iranian “toll booth.”
⚓The Economic Explosion: Analyzing the hypothetical $412,888 per day tanker rates and what they mean for global energy costs.
⚓War Risk Insurance: How underwriters are reacting to the “fragile stabilization” and what a $5 billion potential loss event looks like for the industry.
⚓The Long-Term Impact: Why the “Great Blue Commons” is under threat and how the cost of geopolitical uncertainty is being added to every barrel of oil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MgfuFo7jaEE
Sal Mercogliano- What’s Going on With Shipping?
In this June 17, 2026, update of What’s Going on With Shipping, Sal Mercogliano analyzes the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz as five Iranian-flagged vessels, including three NITC tankers carrying approximately 5 million barrels of oil, appear to have breached the U.S.-enforced blockade.
We break down the recent Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory, which downgraded the regional threat level to “Substantial” following news of a potential U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding scheduled for signing on June 19. Despite this, the U.S. Navy maintains that the blockade remains active. Using MarineTraffic AIS data, we track the movement of these vessels into the Arabian Sea and discuss the tactical implications of their current positions.
We also examine the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report on the long-term impact of this crisis on global oil demand and the significant challenges remaining before shipping can return to pre-war levels.
In this episode:
⚓Threat Level Update: Why the JMIC downgraded the risk in the Gulf.
⚓The “Peace Deal”: Details on the upcoming signing in Switzerland and its impact on oil sanctions.
⚓Running the Blockade: Tracking the five Iranian ships currently in international waters.
⚓Oil Market Fallout: Analysis of the IEA’s June report and the 1.1 million barrel-per-day demand drop.
⚓Commercial Reality: Why a deal doesn’t mean an immediate return to “normal” shipping.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMbYOJuAueI
Sal Mercogliano- What’s Going on With Shipping?
21JUN2026 The Strait of Hormuz Ship Show: Week 16 Update
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz has escalated into what can only be described as a “ship show.” Following a brief moment of hope for a ceasefire and the reopening of the waterway, the emergence of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) has thrown maritime operations into chaos.
In this Week 16 recap, we break down the conflicting signals: while the U.S. declares the “Southern Highway” open and free for transit, Iran is asserting authority over the entire strait, demanding new “insurance” clearances that many in the industry view as a protection racket. We look at the data from Marine Traffic to see who is actually sailing, which ships are turning their AIS off, and why major carriers like Maersk remain cautious despite the diplomatic “14 points.”
In this episode:
⚓The impact of the PGSA’s new requirements on global shipping.
⚓Analysis of tanker movements: Who is using the Iranian vs. Omani channels?
⚓The reality of demining efforts and why the “Southern Highway” remains high-risk.
⚓US Blockade Officially Lifted & Toll Uncertainties
⚓How China and Russia are positioning themselves as oil and commodity markets shift.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuVb_Jjyh58