Sal Mercogliano- What’s Going on With Shipping?
In this June 17, 2026, update of What’s Going on With Shipping, Sal Mercogliano analyzes the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz as five Iranian-flagged vessels, including three NITC tankers carrying approximately 5 million barrels of oil, appear to have breached the U.S.-enforced blockade.
We break down the recent Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) advisory, which downgraded the regional threat level to “Substantial” following news of a potential U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding scheduled for signing on June 19. Despite this, the U.S. Navy maintains that the blockade remains active. Using MarineTraffic AIS data, we track the movement of these vessels into the Arabian Sea and discuss the tactical implications of their current positions.
We also examine the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest report on the long-term impact of this crisis on global oil demand and the significant challenges remaining before shipping can return to pre-war levels.
In this episode:
⚓Threat Level Update: Why the JMIC downgraded the risk in the Gulf.
⚓The “Peace Deal”: Details on the upcoming signing in Switzerland and its impact on oil sanctions.
⚓Running the Blockade: Tracking the five Iranian ships currently in international waters.
⚓Oil Market Fallout: Analysis of the IEA’s June report and the 1.1 million barrel-per-day demand drop.
⚓Commercial Reality: Why a deal doesn’t mean an immediate return to “normal” shipping.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CMbYOJuAueI