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Iran Update Special Report, June 10, 2026

Iran is using force, combined with the threat to suspend US-Iran negotiations, to try to deter the United States from conducting further attacks on Iran that would likely make it more difficult for Iran to achieve its strategic objectives, which include solidifying control over the Strait of Hormuz and preserving the Axis of Resistance. US forces struck around 20 targets in southern Iran, including air defenses, ground control stations, and surveillance radar sites, on June 9 in response to Iran's drone attack that downed a US Apache helicopter off the coast of Oman on June 8.[1] Iranian forces responded by conducting several drone and missile attacks targeting US bases in Jordan, Kuwait, and Bahrain.[2] US forces intercepted all of the projectiles except for one that landed in the vicinity of the US Navy 5th Fleet Headquarters in Manama, Bahrain, with no reported casualties at the time of this writing.[3] The Iranian regime likely intended for these strikes to have an informational effect by signaling to the United States that Iranian forces would be prepared to resume the war with the United States if necessary. The Iranian regime likely calculated that the United States would not resume the war in response to these strikes given recent reports that US President Donald Trump would prefer a negotiated settlement over a resumption of conflict. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei separately stated on June 10 that Iran will “review” negotiations with the United States in light of the US self-defense strikes on Iran on June 9.[4] This comment is also part of the Iranian informational campaign aimed at deterring further US military action against Iran because Baghaei is implicitly threatening to suspend negotiations if the United States takes military action against Iran.[5] Iran is exploiting the current situation in which it has neither made concessions in negotiations nor faces continuous large-scale strikes from the United States and Israel to advance its objectives, such as normalizing Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz. ISW-CTP previously assessed that the Iranian regime likely calculates that the status quo is favorable to achieving its objectives.

Iran has repeatedly used calibrated force in recent weeks as part of a series of campaigns to try to achieve its strategic objectives. Iran launched missiles at Israel on June 7 to pressure US President Donald Trump to convince Israel to halt its operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon.[6] These attacks were part of a broader Iranian effort to preserve Hezbollah, which it views as a key pillar of its deterrence strategy vis-a-vis Israel and the United States.[7] Iran has also used force, including attacks on US forces in the Gulf and the drone attack on the Apache helicopter, to try to deter the United States from enforcing its naval blockade and interfering with Iranian efforts to control the strait.[8] Iranian officials and media have repeatedly emphasized that Iran will not concede on control of the strait, its proxy and partner network, and its nuclear program because it views these things as central pillars to its national security strategy to deter future attacks by the United States and Israel.[9]

ISW-CTP is monitoring reports of additional US strikes in Iran as of 5:36 PM ET on June 10. CTP-ISW will provide more details on the US strikes in its June 11 morning thread and evening update. President Trump threatened earlier on June 10 to strike Iranian power plants and bridges if Iran did not make progress in negotiations.[10]

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is continuing to strike Hezbollah targets and conduct ground operations in southern Lebanon, despite Hezbollah and Iranian efforts to deter Israel from continuing its campaign in Lebanon. ISW-CTP assessed on June 8 that Hezbollah likely seeks to benefit from Iran's threat to respond to any Israeli attack against Hezbollah because such threats seek to inject uncertainty into Israel's decision-making process for military operations against Hezbollah.[11] Senior Israeli officials stated on June 8 and 9 that Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iran to deter Israel from striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and will respond to any Hezbollah or Iranian attacks on Israeli territory.[12] The IDF continued to strike Hezbollah targets, including rocket and drone launch sites, in southern Lebanon on June 9 and 10.[13] IDF units, including the 869th Brigade Reconnaissance Unit (91st Division) and the 84th (Givati) Infantry Brigade (91st Division), have continued to seize and destroy Hezbollah weapons caches and infrastructure and kill the group's fighters in southern Lebanon in recent days.[14] Lebanese security sources told Saudi media on June 10 that the IDF is attempting to advance along the Beaufort Castle axis toward Kfar Tebnit and Ali Taher Hill in southeastern Lebanon and along the Biyyadah axis toward Majdal Zoun and Mazraat Buyut al Sayad in southwestern Lebanon.[15] Kfar Tebnit and Ali al Taher are both located on high ground, which is favorable for observing Hezbollah ground force movements.[16] The IDF and Hezbollah launched strikes against each other along both axes on June 10.[17]

Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Kataib al Imam Ali submitted files and data related to its members, weapons, and vehicles to the Iraqi federal government's disarmament committee.[18] The Iraqi federal government began trying to restrict arms to the state on June 4 through the disarmament and integration of Iranian-backed Iraqi militia fighters into the Iraqi security establishment, including the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).[19] The PMF is an Iraqi state security service that includes many Iraqi militias, such as Kataib al Imam Ali, that answer to Iran instead of the Iraqi prime minister.[20] Kataib al Imam Ali controls the 40th PMF Brigade.[21] Kataib al Imam Ali announced on June 2 that it would begin to “disengage” from the PMF and restrict weapons to the Iraqi state, possibly to overcome US opposition to the group's involvement in the next Iraqi government.[22] Kataib al Imam Ali could also seek to fill a portion of the 35,000 jobs in Iraqi security institutions that Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al Zaydi has reportedly proposed to be allocated to militia members who disarm.[23]

It will be difficult for the Iraqi federal government to confirm the degree of Kataib al Imam Ali's transparency and honesty given the extent to which Iranian-backed Iraqi militias have routinely obscured their operations from the Iraqi state. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias operate covertly due to their very nature as “resistance” organizations.[24] The PMF, which the militias are supposed to integrate into, also operates with limited Iraqi government oversight.[25] The Iraqi federal government, under former Prime Minister Haider al Abadi, tried and failed multiple times to audit the PMF.[26] PMF officials have deliberately hidden information such as the size of the PMF from the Iraqi federal government, for example.[27] Militias that control PMF brigades also manage illicit financial networks that Iran uses to evade US sanctions.[28] ISW-CTP continues to assess that any Iraqi federal government attempt to disarm the militias and integrate them into the Iraqi security establishment that does not address the militias’ networks and allegiance to Iran will likely further embed Iranian influence within the Iraqi state.

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-june-10-2026/

Iran Update Special Report, June 11, 2026

The Iranian regime is using information operations to magnify the informational effect of its strikes as part of an effort to compel the United States to accept an agreement that is relatively advantageous to Iran. Iran does not view the current phase in the conflict as negotiations in pursuit of a deal; it believes it is at war and that war will end with a deal. The Supreme Leader's website argued on June 10 that Iran is “not afraid” of a ceasefire collapse, which aims to suggest to the United States that Iran does not fear a return to conflict.[1] These messages magnify the informational effect of Iranian strikes across the region. These regional strikes are not militarily effective, but they create an informational effect by demonstrating that Iran is not concerned about going to war. This improves Iran's position in negotiations by demonstrating to the United States that Iran is willing to resume the conflict if it does not get what it seeks in a deal—namely, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and the release of frozen funds, among other issues.

The Iranian regime likely assesses that the United States does not seek a return to the conflict. The campaign described above seeks to leverage US fears about a return to conflict. The regime has almost certainly observed and reacted to US statements in the Western press.[2] Iranian regime-affiliated Nour News, for example, highlighted that neither side wants to trigger a full-scale conflict, which implies that Nour News believes that the United States does not want to return to war.[3] US President Donald Trump has said explicitly that he seeks to avoid war, which would presumably increase Iran's confidence in its assessment.[4] US Vice President JD Vance similarly said that he believes the United States and Iran can reach a deal, which implies he continues to support a diplomatic track, which also would increase Iran's confidence that the United States does not want to return to war at this time.[5]

Iran's strikes on US bases and assets are also designed to have primarily informational and economic effects, rather than military effects. Iran responded to US airstrikes targeting Iranian military capabilities on June 11 (see below for report on US airstrikes and timeline of events) with drone and missile attacks on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, as Iran had previously done on June 10.[6] These strikes had little military effect. But the strikes appeared designed to upset markets—thereby increasing economic pressure on the United States—and trigger fears that Iran may be willing to resume the war.

Iran continues to demonstrate that it is unwilling to yield to US military pressure and come to an agreement. Axios also reported on June 11, citing unspecified sources, that Qatari and Iranian officials believed they had reached an ”agreed-upon text” that the United States would also accept.[7] The IRGC outlet's source also claimed that the United States will eventually have to accept the main frameworks of Iran's text.[8] Iran's denial and the narrative spread by the IRGC outlet suggest that Iran is trying to preserve its negotiating position and avoid creating the impression that US military pressure forced Iran to accept US terms as well.

Iran also knows that not conceding and amplifying its denial imposes political and economic cost on the United States as well. Supreme Leader Military Adviser Mohsen Rezaei warned on June 11 that the United States must choose between accepting Iran's terms and losing “the last shred of its credibility.”[9] Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Committee member Esmail Kowsari similarly claimed on June 11 that the war has imposed pressure on the US economy and that Trump is pressuring Iran to achieve his goals.[10] Iran's announcement that it has “closed” the Strait of Hormuz is an extension of Iran's information operation to heighten political and economic pressure on the United States by amplifying its military operations in the region. The Persian Gulf Strait Authority separately announced on June 11 that the strait is closed and told vessels that previously received transit permits to remain “patient” and await further guidance.[11] It remains unclear whether Iran's statement will translate into changes to its existing coercive maritime behavior.

US President Donald Trump's announced on June 11 that he canceled scheduled strikes against Iran on the night of June 11 after discussions with Iran reached the “highest level” of Iranian leadership.[12] IRGC-linked Fars News Agency later denied that Iranian leaders had approved the deal, but later clarified that it would “likely” be approved because the United States approved Iran's text.[13] It is unclear what precisely is in the text. ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on June 12.

The United States is attempting to degrade Iran's ability to sense, target, and strike vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz and US air assets protecting their transit. US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on June 10 that US forces struck Iranian air defenses, surveillance assets, radar systems, and drone command units in southern Iran to degrade Iran's ability to track, coerce, and attack US forces and commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.[14] Satellite imagery confirmed that US forces struck Bandar Abbas International Airport on June 10, and open-source social media users and Iranian media reported explosions across southern Iran, including Qeshm Island, Kish Island, and Minab City in Hormozgan Province near the Strait of Hormuz on June 10.[15] The June 10 strikes followed an exchange of fire between the United States and Iran on June 9. Iran initiated the most recent escalation when an Iranian drone downed a US Apache helicopter off Oman on June 8 while it was operating over the strait.[16] US forces also struck multiple targets on the outskirts of Tehran City, but ISW-CTP is unable to verify what these strikes targeted at this time.[17]

The United States has also continued to enforce its blockade on Iranian ports as part of its economic pressure campaign on Iran. CENTCOM announced that US forces disabled the Guinea-Bissau-flagged oil tanker M/V Jalveer on June 10 after the vessel attempted to violate the US blockade and transport Iranian oil outside of Iran.[18] The strike that disabled the vessel injured some crew members.[19] This is the third Iranian-linked vessel that US forces have disabled this week for failing to comply with the US blockade.[20] CENTCOM forces also disabled the Palau-flagged oil tanker M/T Settebello as it transited the Gulf of Oman on June 9 and disabled the Palau-flagged oil tanker M/T Marivex as it transited international waters in the Gulf of Oman toward Iran on June 8.[21] CENTCOM also announced on June 11 that US forces have disabled ”nine non-compliant vessels,” redirected 135 ships that attempted to run the US blockade, and allowed 42 vessels with humanitarian aid to transit since the United States initiated the blockade on April 13.[22]

Senior Emirati and Iranian national security officials held an in-person meeting for the first time since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran, according to Bloomberg on June 11, citing people familiar with the matter.[23] The United Arab Emirates (UAE)’s motivation to meet with Iran was to reportedly ease tensions with Iran, according to the sources.[24] Emirati officials have reportedly become more disillusioned with the prospect of Iranian regime change and the United States and Iran achieving a political settlement.[25] Emirati officials also reportedly remain concerned about the fragility of the US-Iran ceasefire and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — both of which have damaged the UAE’s economy and security.[26] Iranian officials pushed for a high-level meeting with the UAE, but the Emiratis waited until their Iranian point of contacts could prove they had a direct line to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC, according to Bloomberg’s sources.[27] Bloomberg assessed that the talks had positive results for the Emiratis and noted that Iran has not fired at the UAE since Iran targeted the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant on May 17.[28] Iran has targeted Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan on June 9 and 10, however.[29]

The Israeli Foreign Ministry claimed on June 11 that Hezbollah launched drones targeting three locations within Israeli territory on June 10 and 11.[30] Hezbollah claimed that it launched fixed-wing drones targeting an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) border post at Nimr al Jamal, northern Israel, on June 11.[31] The IDF did not report any attacks targeting Israeli territory on June 10 or 11. The IDF did report Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli forces in southern Lebanon, which triggered air raid sirens in near-border Israeli communities, however.[32] Israeli political leaders and the IDF have repeatedly warned since June 1 that the IDF would conduct airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in the Beirut area if Hezbollah attacks northern Israel.[33]

more + maps: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-special-report-june-11-2026/